Whenever a person is armed, it makes no sense to shoot first. This was the mistake Mamata Banerjee made and has now been shot by Mulayam Singh, who says he will not withdraw support to the UPA.
What a pity that Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal, did not seek her Finance Minister’s counsel before announcing that she would withdraw her party’s support to the UPA Government if it did not obey her.
Amit Mitra, her Finance Minister, when he isn’t defending her with terror in his demeanour, can think like an economist because he is one, with a PhD from Duke University and all that. Had she asked him, he may have told her about what in Game theory is called the Mexican Standoff.
It involves three (or more) gunmen (or women), each with his (or her) gun pointing at the others. The question is whether to shoot first. But there is a problem. Suppose Gunman 1 shoots first and kills Gunman 2. In the instant that he pulls the trigger, Gunman 3 shoots him.
Moral: Whenever a person is armed, it makes no sense to shoot first. This was the mistake Mamata Banerjee made and has now been shot by Mulayam Singh who says he will not withdraw support to the UPA.
The right timimg
Game, set and match to Manmohan Singh. He has pulled it off once again. The last time someone was stupid enough to take him on — remember Prakash Karat’s threat in 2008 over the Indo-US nuclear deal? — the same thing happened.
Singh may not sing, but he is always emerges King because he manages to get his timing right. He waits patiently, and then strikes when the moment is right.
What to say? Much has been said and written about Singh’s silence. He has become a butt of jokes. He has been called names. But no one is able to answer the question: If he broke his silence, what was he supposed to have said?
I asked many people to write a speech for him saying what they thought he should say. There has been zero response, for the simple reason that when you actually pin people down, they are not able to come up with a single thing that should go into such a speech.
Track record
There remains, of course, the question of the coal block allotments. Singh can’t get away from the most uncomfortable fact of his career, namely, that he was the Coal Minister when the allocations were made. He should have offered to resign. Indeed, given his track record with resignations, he may well have.
For those who may have forgotten, he offered to resign as RBI Governor in 1983, when the then Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, threatened to take away the RBI’s bank licensing powers if a licence was not issued to Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI), which eventually went bust in 1991.
He offered to resign as Finance Minister in 1991 when Balram Jakhar and Arjun Singh opposed the one rupee increase in the price of urea. And he, in fact, did resign after the Harshad Mehta case in 1992. He had also offered to resign just over the nuclear deal, or so one hears.
This record suggests that he may well have offered to quit this time also, if only because he is prone to do that when he feels the moral responsibility is his. In the past, he was persuaded not to. Could this have happened this time also?
It seems his biography is being written by one of his closest relatives. One must hope that it will tell the whole story.
Keywords: What a pity, Mamata Banerjee, finance minister’s counsel, withdraw support, UPA Government, obey her, Amit Mitra, Game theory, Mexican Standoff, three gunmen
Comments:
Interesting article. However, I am sure Mamta is canny enough to think
through the above consequences. After Congress's move on (so called)
'Reforms' front, she saw a big void created in 'politics of grievance'
- which was erstwhile championed by Congress. She decided to fill this
void by withdrawing support to UPA, with a wishful thinking that this
will appeal the masses, and get her enough seats in WB to create a
strong negotiating position in 3rd or 4th front if it emerges. (She
could have decided not to implement retail FDI in her state, and yet
stay with Congress. But she did not do that, since she is eyeing for a
big fish this time)
Dr. MMS ,indeed will be remembered, a lost person in Indian history of governance and polity. How can he tell us " Money does not grow on trees" ? I myself posted in a news portelyesterday at 8pm , actually what Modi said today- money does grow at air(2g) and under land (coal gate)for few business houses and MPs.
Anyway, Congress will realise in couple of hours time that they too have 'lost' in one more states. At least Mamata is clean, popular mass leader, vote catcher and her intentions are genuine, worthy. Congress as a party will be "Loser" - sad part of it! Country do need two big political parties. Where is Prince Juvaraj? hiding? Please come out.
Why is the coal scam the only "uncomfortable" point for MMS. As a PM, is he not responsible for ALL the major corruptions that took place right under his very nose ? This article has the smell of "written by congressi chamcha" all over it.
Mr.Editor, Please publish this in your letter to the Editor column.
Mr T.C.Srinivasa Rahavan
We have become sick of the Intelligent politicians of India. And
intelligent people like you who find ways to praise them. We want
Straight forward but tough people like Mamata Banerjee who are simple
and their heart is in the right place. Ultimately, only people like
Mamata will save India from its corrupt, power hungry and ruthless
people.
The intelligent politicians of India have betrayed the poor of India.
So what is their big achievement to talk about ? That they have
"friends" who will protect them. Whom are they fooling ?
They are only obsessed about growth rates which makes no sense to 70%
of the people. God save us from these armchair Economists and
Politicians.
It is not game theory so called the Mexican StandoffIt was dirty politics play by manmohan and mulayam and victim was mamata banergee and Indian. CONGRESS just fool mamata banergee, media, country, apposition. How could we accept that congress will silent on warning of mamata banergee and was keep saying , “we are confident that mamata will not withdrow support”. Actually they want to leave mamata banergee because she was constant opposing the government on different issues. There was something cooked between mulayam and congress , so mulayam suddenly change move from forming third front. He just fuel the fire between mamataji and congress. People of India should understand this dirty polities and learn the lesson to both mulayam and congress( but always Indian proves that they are slave)
mamta banerjee rose from a stable. She is clear about her ideas and role
in development of w+est bengal. IF SOMEBODY THIKS SHE IS FOOLISH he is
sadly mistaken. After assuming pow+er in 2011 she follow+s the principle
of consultation in aggressive manner w+hich is unknow+n to a lot of
people.If she achieves at least 10 percent grow+th that w+ill be
monumental in relation to left fronts 34 years rule.
Even this analysis seems to be pre-mature. Mamta was aware of the fact
govt will not collapse and she had obliquely referred in her speech.
However by being in UPA has not brought her that nescafe type instant
delight, as the acrimony leading upto presidential election revealed.
2014 for her is not an acid test for her as much its for congress &
bjp. she is already focussing on retaining power beyond 2016. Hence
her current antics should be looked in that respect. She has gained
browny points for now by opposing FDI; and her willy finance minister
will surely make use of this policy at an opportune moment !!!
Maybe Manmohan Singh won, maybe Mulayam Singh Yadav won, maybe Mamata Banerjee won, I don't know. But I do know Bengal lost.
In all fairness, 2 persons should die in Mexican standoff. If Mamata is shot by Mulayam, whom did she fire at? Your article seems to suggest she fired at herself. Logic apart, she had the option not to implement for her state, then why go down fighting? The strategy seems to gain public votes for 2014 to be in a more commendable position. btw, who gave license for BCCI and when?
Please Email the Editor