Looking West, looking East

The year began with clear indications of how the Narendra Modi government intends to position itself in global affairs. The Prime Minister’s invitation to the heads of Saarc governments for his swearing-in was followed by intensive interactions with regional and global leaders in Yangon and Brisbane during the East Asia and G20 summits.

The message sent out was that India was determined to return to a high growth path economically. It would play a pro-active role not only in regional economic integration with its Asean neighbours and major economies such as Japan and South Korea, but also in fashioning new security dynamics across the Indo-Pacific region. India’s security perimeter was no longer confined to the Indian Ocean Rim, but extended across the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.

Although President Xi Jinping’s visit to India was marred by Chinese military intrusion in Chumar, the message to Beijing was that while India would resist territorial incursions, it was ready for dialogue to end tensions, expand economic cooperation and widen interaction in forums such as Brics and G20.

But the event that received widespread global attention was the visit of President Barack Obama for India’s Republic Day celebrations. It clearly signalled that India was opening its doors to foreign investment, expanding the scope of bilateral cooperation in defence, and seeking solutions constructively to issues of environment, energy, intellectual property rights and climate change.

New Delhi recognises the reality that the US is going to remain the pre-eminent global power for at least the next two decades. At the same time, one has to recognise that differences in areas such as IPR, especially in pharmaceuticals and in climate change, posed difficult challenges. Moreover, the road ahead in nuclear power cooperation with the US is going to be bumpy. Legal challenges on issues of compensation appear inevitable. It also remains to be seen if American reactors can supply power at reasonable and competitive rates.

While India can be satisfied with signs that US support for the Afghan armed forces will continue, American ambivalence on the Taliban will remain a matter of concern. India will have to seek greater cooperation on the Afghanistan issue in interactions with members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, particularly China and Russia.

The Americans understand that India will not join western efforts to isolate and condemn Russia. The recent trilateral India-Russia-China ministerial met in Beijing made it clear that India has serious concerns about the challenges China poses to its national security along its borders, and by its nuclear, missile and military relationships with Pakistan and its assertiveness across the Indian Ocean littoral. Despite this, every effort will be made to address differences on the border issue while expanding trade, industrial, and investment ties, equitably and realistically.

Unlike Pakistan, which reacted churlishly to the Obama visit, the Chinese showedconcern combined with realism. They were unquestionably unsettled by the readiness of the US and India to expand military ties while enunciating a common vision for the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific regions. References to the need to avoid the threat of use of force and abide by the provisions of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea clearly conveyed concerns over Chinese behaviour in its maritime disputes with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia. It was also asserted that there would be strengthening of cooperation through Indi-Japan-US trilateral cooperation.

The Chinese responded with expressions of concern, together with rolling out the red carpet for Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and welcoming a proposed visit by Modi in May 2015. One can reasonably expect that at the very least, such a visit will lead to measures that ensure that border incursions such as those that occurred in Depsang and Chumar in 2013-2014 are avoided.

It would be too much to expect China to proceed more cautiously in its policies of military, nuclear and missile technology and weapons transfers to Pakistan. China will also proceed with enhancing support for its Maritime Silk Route, designed across India’s entire coastal periphery. But recent developments in Sri Lanka and Myanmar should caution to mandarins in Beijing about getting overzealous on the “strategic containment” of India. Recent agreements with the US, Japan and Vietnam should also serve as a signal to Beijing that a determined India can, at the very least, respond diplomatically to its moves in the Indian Ocean by counter-measures, leveraging its partnerships with China’s immediate coastal neighbours and the US.

Following a categorical US commitment to back India for Apec membership, China has indicated that it will not be an obstacle. The time has also perhaps come to informally sound out the US, Australia, Japan and Asean states such as Vietnam and Singapore for exploring the possibility of India joining the Trans-Pacific partnership.

There are indications that Modi will visit France, Germany and the UK this year, apart from Russia. With a number of its members afflicted by serious economic maladies, the European Union appears to be increasingly looking inwards. But its major powers do have the potential to contribute significantly Modi’s ‘Make in India’ programme and its defence modernisation. The proposed visit to Israel has also to be looked at in this context.

Missing from this schedule are possible visits to Gulf countries such as Oman, Qatar, Iraq and, circumstances permitting, Iran, especially if we are able to finalise long-term contracts for the import of LNG. There is now every indication that, like the prices of oil, the prices of LNG are also set to fall as global shale gas production rises. It would only be in the fitness of things if our “Act East” policies are combined with a pro-active approach to our energy-rich, but politically volatile western neighbourhood. Success in such an active foreign policy agenda will naturally be substantially facilitated by and depend on the government’s success in getting its economic reforms agenda and legislation approved by Parliament.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan

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