To call Nawaz Sharif a failed leader of a failed country might be harsh. But from the time his party won the Pakistan election with a thumping majority amidst strong allegations of widespread fraud and rigging just over a year ago, Sharif’s third term as prime minister has been both troubled and shaky.

And now, the country that has been battling severe attacks from Islamists and the Pakistan Taliban, and growing charges of corruption against its politicians from a cynical and sceptical population, is in yet another crisis, with the likelihood of yet another stint of military rule not ruled out.

Anti-government protests and violence in Islamabad have left several dead and hundreds injured. The protests led by opposition leaders such as the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan and the Islamic cleric and chief of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek Tahirul Qadri are into the third week. As protestors marched towards the prime minister’s house and the adjacentparliament building, rumours circulated about all kinds of deals.

One that’s been around for long is that Imran Khan is backed by the Pakistan armed forces; another says that even the Taliban is soft on the PTI. But after the protests began, there has been widespread reporting — mainly by the western media — that Sharif has struck a deal with the army; that he will gradually yield control to the army in strategic policy areas such as relations with the US, India and Afghanistan. Also, that former Pakistan president and army chief Pervez Musharraf would be freed and given safe passage to a foreign country. Another rumour is that Sharif would proceed on a one-month enforced vacation while his senior ministers run the government and the Pakistan Supreme Court-led judicial commission will investigate charges of rigging in last year’s elections.

All this to ward off a coup. Remember the 1999 coup when Musharraf unseated Sharif and after almost a year “exiled” him to Saudi Arabia from where he returned in 2007, only to be bundled out within a few hours from Lahore airport itself back to Saudi Arabia?

Army advocates democracy

As the protestors refused to go away and Imran Khan perched on a shipping container (these were initially used by the security forces to cordon off the prime minister’s house and other areas, but some of them have now been commandeered by the protestors) on Sunday, there was a crucial meeting of the army commanders. Pakistanis waited with bated breath, dreading news of yet another military takeover; however, the result was just a cryptic statement.

It reaffirmed the army’s “support to democracy”, reviewed “with serious concern the existing political crisis and the violent turn it has taken”, and reiterated the need to resolve matters “politically without wasting any time and without recourse to violent means”.

But on Monday, matters escalated with protestors armed with clubs and sticks first storming the secretariat building and later the state-run Pakistan Television’s office. PTV went off the air for a while before the army evicted the protestors and secured the building.

Grandiose projects

While it looks as though the government will survive for the moment as the army doesn’t seem to be in an undue haste for a coup, Sharif’s core constituency — business and industry— is also getting disillusioned with the man who comes from an industrial family. Cutting across political lines, Pakistani industrialists are now beginning to believe that the Sharif government is pulling wool over the eyes of the people when it talks of better days ahead.

“A peculiar trait of the Sharif governments (present and past) is to announce grandiose projects that, though beneficial in the long term, place a heavy burden on the meagre financial resources of the treasury in the short term,” says industrialist and former president of the Karachi Chamber of Industry and Commerce Majyd Aziz. He cites the example of numerous MoUs being signed on the power front, “with Sharif and his team giving the impression that electricity will be available in a few months. This is comical rhetoric in an era people are facing 12-hour power cuts”.

Emphasising once again the traditional Punjab-Sindh rivalry, the Karachi-based industrialist adds that “another damaging trait of Sharif is to concentrate on Central Punjab; and his government is primarily focused on cronyism, nepotism, and family rule. Both he and his brother Shahbaz Sharif are anti-Karachi from Day 1. No wonder Imran Khan calls it a monarchy.”

Who after Sharif?

Coming to the question of who after Sharif, even though the charismatic Imran Khan is leading the protests — his PTI got 32 seats in the National Assembly and is ruling one of the provinces — and is bound to do better in the next election whenever it happens, his popularity seems confined mainly to the youth and some regions. Also, many older people see him as arrogant and provincial. He is not widely seen as a leader with vision and one who can pull Pakistan out of its present morass.

Predicting another exile of the Sharif family to either “London or Jeddah”, Aziz says the “regal style and mindset of the Sharif family, along with the arrogance and haughtiness of his core ministers has alienated the establishment, media, civil society and the business community”.

Meanwhile on social media and WhatsApp, in a reflection of the shrinking support for Sharif, a few Pakistani friends have been feverishly posting/forwarding messages deriding Sharif. While one picture shows his brain in his knee, another shows a donkey hitting his head against a pole and wondering: “ Ya Allah, is mulk ka kya hoga? ” (What will happen to this country?)

Aziz says Pakistan needs sincere leaders who are serious about reforms and good governance and economic progress. “We need to improve our global image. These so-called social media activists are mainly employees of multinationals, part of media or NGOs. They have little to lose as they can get positions here or in the Middle East, etc. They vitiate the already fragile situation and brazenly enjoy trolling. They don’t represent the masses; it is better to ignore them.”

But what can’t be ignored is the merry mess Pakistan’s politicians and armed forces have made in the country.

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