Nitish dares Modi, what next?

The die is cast for the next general elections. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has had his way. The JD(U) has said Narendra Modi is not acceptable as the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate, and called for one with “impeccable secular credentials.”

The party feels “as head of government, Modi neither showed promptness nor magnanimity during the 2002 riots.” More important, Nitish Kumar, who is responsible for shaping the party’s hard stance against Modi and its resolution at the JD(U) meet last week, tore into Modi, once again without naming him, by seeking a leader who could ensure growth that was inclusive and humane.

BJP stands by Modi

But with the BJP refusing to dilute its loyalty to Modi, the NDA is headed for a split. BJP spokesperson Nirmala Sitharaman regretted that instead of focusing energy on “removing the UPA”, the JD(U) was targeting “our chief ministers... We reject all unfounded inferences against Shri Narendra Modi.”

The BJP’s gamble, in fielding a polarising and controversial a figure as Modi for the country’s top job, is that the deeply polarising appeal of Modi will get the party a rich haul of seats. His supporters are optimistic that a combination of the Modi charisma, the “Gujarat model of development”, and the aura of a decisive, non-corruptible politician that he exudes, coupled with “zero appeasement” of minorities, will all come together in a heady cocktail of support for the BJP. In the party’s inner circle, it is being speculated that with Modi at its helm, and thanks to his polarising capability, the BJP on its own will be able to get around 200 seats, or even more.

If that happens, naturally they will have no need for Nitish Kumar and his JD(U). Smartly, Modi has already factored in Nitish parting ways with the NDA, and has openly wooed Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Bannerjee during his recent visit to Kolkata.

Development and Gujarat

Now let’s come to the Gujarat model of development. As Modi races towards formal anointment as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, there is increasing debate on the aggressive and slick PR campaigns to attribute Gujarat’s success to him. Against the Gujarat Government’s claim of development, different sets of statistics are being quoted to show how some of his claims are only hawa (air), as Nitish pointed out in his address.

A report in The Hindu points out that despite all the hype over the Vibrant Gujarat meet, FDI inflows for the financial year 2012-13 up to January put Gujarat only in the sixth rank “with Rs 2,470 crore or 2.38 per cent share. Maharashtra continues to top with FDI of Rs 40,999 crore or 40 per cent, followed by Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gujarat was slightly ahead of West Bengal in 2012-13, which got FDI of Rs 1,934 crore.”

Forget statistics which can be tweaked and dressed, revealed or hidden, to prove any premise one is advancing. I have always maintained that if Gujarat is today a prosperous State, it is due to the entrepreneurial spirit of the Gujaratis.

Business is in their genes. You give a Gujarati an opportunity, whether in his home State or outside, he/she will turn it into a successful enterprise. Dalal Street of Mumbai has literally thrived or crashed on the Gujarati investors’ ability to take huge risks.

Is it inclusive?

The question to be asked is not how much Modi has contributed to the business/industrial ethos of Gujarat, but how inclusive has been this “development”. Of course, the Gujarati Muslim business community loves Modi; after 2002 there have been no communal riots in the State and they can do their dhandha (business) in peace.

But what about the illiterate, unemployed Muslims living in ghettos such as Juhapura or Kalupur? And the tribals, the fishing community in the coastal areas, who belong mostly to the minorities? Talk to a cross-section of people in Gujarat which is not under Modi’s magic spell, and you’ll hear that land is being given away to industries for peanuts from the CPR (common Property Resources), at the cost of the socially oppressed and economically disadvantaged.

Nitish’s jibes

Hence, when at the JD(U) meet, Nitish once again ridiculed Modi’s style of development, and more crucially, the delusion ( bhramm ) he is causing, he knows what he is talking about.

“ Yeh desh hawa banane se nahi chal sakta hei.” (This country cannot be run from empty air). It may have less educated people but they are very intelligent.”

With biting sarcasm he said, “Sure there may be development, but yet people suffer from malnutrition. So what kind of development is it? There is great development and yet people have no drinking water.

You call this development? Real development is that which is done at the grassroots and in a humane manner.”

He added that even Bihar has seen development, and this was much more challenging because it was and continues to be an economically backward State. But the euphoria about Modi’s credentials to rule this country is so great, and the disenchantment with the present UPA regime so complete, that you cannot raise these questions without being bashed, ridiculed and abused.

The chattering classes… those who are active on social media and the Comments section of newspapers/magazines have made up their minds that Modi should be the next PM. But in India it is always the silent majority which has decided the outcome of any election.

Of course, the BJP is entitled to its choices, as well as its gamble that Modi’s polarising appeal will bring it back to power. Reminds me of what one Muslim leader in Patna had told me 10 years ago when I asked him if the Muslims disenchanted with Lalu Prasad might vote for the BJP. “No,” he had said. “And BJP doesn’t desire Muslim votes either, that would be a negative for them vis-à-vis their Hindu supporters.”

Well, extend this logic to the next election with Modi as the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate, and the picture becomes clearer. But that doesn’t mean we should not ask questions to Modi or on his model of development.

Asking one such question about Modi’s statement at the India Today conclave, that the coming century will be driven by the knowledge economy, was Aakar Patel: “When Gujaratis like Tata and Premji want to set up a knowledge-based business like TCS or Wipro they come not to Ahmedabad, Baroda or Surat but to Mumbai, Bangalore and Gurgaon. Modi should figure out how he can import some of this to benefit Gujaratis before talking about exporting his model.”

Responses to rasheeda.bhagat@thehindu.co.in and blfeedback@thehindu.co.in

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