The first official visit of Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi has been hailed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an opportunity to give a further boost to the full range of New Delhi’s partnership with Naypyidaw. In the context of India’s much-touted ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ policies, it would be meaningful, at the very least, to examine this as a statement of intent to infuse a sense of urgency in our efforts to realise the full potential of this critical bilateral partnership. Intent apart, the reality is that bilateral trade between India and Myanmar has been woefully below potential. While the Centre categorises the $1.57-billion trade between the two countries in 2014-15 as a reflection of India being the “fourth largest trade partner” with Naypyidaw, a rough comparison with China puts the picture in perspective. The trade between Myanmar and China hit a whopping $9.5 billion in the first ten months of 2015-16. In addition, China invested $15.418 billion in 115 projects, making it the biggest investor in Myanmar. While India is still pledging to enhance its engagement in the agriculture, power, renewable energy and power sectors, the Chinese are already financing new ports, highways and dams in Myanmar.

Aside from the wall it has hit on the $3.6-billion Myitsone dam project, the Chinese investments in roads to access sea ports in the Bay of Bengal from Kunming have continued. The oil storage tanks in Kyauk Phyu island in the Bay of Bengal are designed to help China store oil from West Asia and transport it through a 720-kilometre pipeline to Yunan. The Chinese control over the financial sector in Myanmar is only matched by capital investments in hydroelectric projects, oil and gas fields, and road construction. Given the historical context wherein China came forward to help Myanmar when it was an international outcast under the military junta, India clearly has vast ground to cover if it has to prove its relevance to a democratic regime that seems keen to strike a balance of power between its two giant neighbours. This is largely owing to subterranean fears in Myanmar of being sucked in as an area of Chinese influence given its economic influence, as also the worrying demographic change that has already taken place. An estimated 50 per cent of Mandalay’s population is today Chinese and learning Mandarin has become an essential job requirement for the young population.

Against this backdrop, the expression of intent to strengthen partnership has to be backed by encouraging Indian businesses to invest in Myanmar, open hospitals and facilitate pharmaceutical exports further, besides improving transportation facilities. A lackadaisical and half-hearted approach, as seen in the three-year delay in the scheduled opening this year of the trilateral India-Myanmar-Thailand highway, does not help in recovering lost ground.

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