Course correction

The results of the recent by-elections in eight States are a setback for the BJP — but perhaps not in the way it has been popularly interpreted. The ruling party is quite right in asserting that these results are not a referendum on the national government. Nevertheless, the fact that the BJP lost 13 of the 23 seats it held (out of the 33 which went to polls), as well as the nature of both its defeats as well as its victories, hold some important lessons for the party and its leadership. The elections also underscore the complexities of Indian politics, and the critical importance of organisational acumen and local-level party management. The Samajwadi Party’s gains in Uttar Pradesh can be attributed in some measure to SP supremo Mulayam Singh’s deft management of constituency-level politics. The Congress wins in Rajasthan owe as much to the focused leadership provided by Sachin Pilot to the party’s State unit, as to the infighting and factionalism within the Rajasthan unit of the BJP, which was temporarily submerged by the Modi wave during the Lok Sabha polls. The marked difference in outcomes between the Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly by-polls are also linked to the lack of enthusiasm among the electorate, with voter turnouts recording significantly lower levels.

The key takeaways for the BJP from these results are clear. The first is that it can no longer afford to ignore the issues plaguing the party at the organisational level and the lack of credible leadership in many State units. This was perhaps why Narendra Modi chose to convert the parliamentary elections into a presidential-style contest. While this worked splendidly at the national level, it cannot work at the State or individual constituency level, where the results confirm that local issues and caste configurations continue to weigh heavily with voters. The second is that old formulae and old methods no longer cut much ice with the new voter. The attempt to communalise the electorate in Uttar Pradesh, for example, has misfired badly. If anything, it has helped consolidate the Muslim vote behind the SP, while delivering no advantage to the BJP.

There is an even more important lesson that the BJP has to absorb. The new Indian voter — whether urban or rural, whether in backward Uttar Pradesh or Bihar or developed Gujarat — is an aspirational one who wants growth and development and greater personal prosperity, and is willing to back the candidate who promises to deliver on these fronts. The remarkable turnaround in the BJP’s fortunes in Uttar Pradesh send a clear message about the new voter’s disenchantment with the old politics of caste and communalism. Indeed, this was the promise — of a new way of governance, not just a new government — which Modi held out to the people. The better his government delivers on growth and development, the greater will be the payoff to the BJP.

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