Preparing for drought

It’s that time of the year, just before the onset of a typically searing summer, when the prospect of a water emergency, such as the one in Latur last year, looms on the horizon. This time, the trouble spots have shifted southwards, towards the endemically dry region of north Karnataka. Meanwhile, Kerala is reeling under its worst water crisis in decades. Recent showers in parts of Kerala and Karnataka have brought no more than a temporary respite. This is because the south-west and north-east monsoons bypassed large swathes of peninsular India. In the case of the latter, the deficit in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu was 67 per cent (nearly 75 per cent in interior Karnataka), whereas in the case of the former the shortfall was 20 per cent (34 per cent in Kerala). In the case of Karnataka, the SW monsoon has failed for three consecutive years; in the rabi season, 160 out of 176 taluks in the State have been declared drought-affected, against 136 taluks in the kharif season. Rainfall patterns point to deficits, as well as eccentric swings away from it, being the norm rather than the exception — thereby implying that the current crisis is no aberration. Weather scientists say that there has been a decline in the rainfall received by Kerala over the last 50 years. They have observed that given the availability of micro-level rainfall data, it is possible to make an informed guess, even in times of climate variability, on how much rain a region will get in a particular year. While temperature stress hits wheat, rainfall and soil moisture are crucial for most Indian crops. The use of hydrology models to estimate surface and groundwater availability under different topographical and climatic conditions should inform decision-making — at present, such work is yet to move out of the portals of academia. Advances in climate science should enable us to anticipate the worst well in advance.

While States are moving up the learning curve, policy responses need to improve. Maharashtra’s move to enforce drip irrigation in sugarcane is clearly an outcome of last year’s debacle. Likewise, Karnataka had months ago disallowed the use of Cauvery water (in its reservoirs) for irrigation purposes, prioritising drinking water needs. Irrigation accounts for 80 per cent of water use, and substantial savings here can be effected by shifting to efficient techniques and crops such as pulses and millets that can withstand weather swings (for which pulses and millets need price support). The budgets of Karnataka and Kerala have laid stress on reviving lakes and tanks.

Taking a critical view of the process of urbanisation and industrial development is as important. The use of taxation as a measure to achieve environmental outcomes — such as disincentivising the use of sand in plastering buildings to check sand mining — has not been explored. Smart cities should be centred around waste recycling. Urban India, too, should raise its awareness levels on water conservation.

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