The Kigali deal on curbing the emissions of HFCs (hydroflourocarbons) marks a bigger breakthrough than the Paris climate change pact in curbing the rise in global warming. HFCs are emissions from coolants that are thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide in trapping heat even though they amount for about 8 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions. HFC cuts could reduce temperature rise by 0.5 per cent over pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, which could translate into substantially reduced destruction of habitats and livelihoods. On the face of it, the HFC accord reserves the right of populous, sweltering developing countries such as India to raise their living standards and productivity through airconditioning, while ensuring that the planet becomes a cooler place. Therefore, in keeping with the Kyoto principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, the developed countries will cut HFC emissions by 85 per cent by 2036, over 2011-13 emission levels; China, Brazil and South Africa, among other developing countries, will reduce HFC emissions by 80 per cent by 2045 over the 2020-22 baseline; and India, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, among others, need to reduce HFC emissions by 85 per cent over the 2024-26 baseline by 2047. This translates into a freeze year, or the year when HFC emissions peak, of 2019 in the case of the US and EU, 2024 in the case of the second grouping, and 2028 in the case of the third club to which India belongs. Airconditioning accounts for over half of HFC emissions, and refrigeration another 30 per cent. The issue is whether a technology shift away from HFCs will make airconditioners (ACs) unaffordable for India’s households and commercial establishments. About 2 per cent of India’s households have ACs, the demand for which is expected to grow at 20 per cent per annum.

Most of India’s ACs are based on an earlier technology. They emit ozone-depleting HCFCs (hydrochloroflourocarbons), which are being phased out (by 2030 in the case of India) under the Montreal Protocol. HFC-emitting ACs, which replaced HCFC-emitting ones elsewhere, however, have a serious global warming impact. Yet, for India to leapfrog into post-HFC technologies such as HFOs (hydroflouroolefins) is easier said than done. HFO-emitting coolants are a nascent technology, the patents for some of which are expected to last till 2025-28. This perhaps explains why the Indian delegation tried to pitch for a later freeze date (2030) and baseline (2027-28) than was agreed upon at Kigali.

What remains to be worked out is multilateral funding to finance the technology shift. India could keep its options open on the freeze date till the funding details are worked out. Above all, its ACs need to be energy efficient. Sheer power demand too has global warming consequences.

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