Monsoon uncertainties

Global climate models are increasingly suggesting that 2014 could be an El Nino year. El Nino — an abnormal warming of the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean waters, resulting in increased evaporation and migration of cloud-forming activity towards the Americas and away from Asia — is associated with poor monsoons in India. The country had severe droughts in 1987, 2002 and 2009 — all three El Nino years. The World Meteorological Organisation, the US Climate Prediction Centre and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, among others, have warned about El Nino making a return after five years. Others, including weather agencies in Europe and Japan, have specifically forecast below-normal monsoon rains for India during the crucial June-August kharif sowing period.

These predictions are cause for worry but not for alarm. To start with, the intensity of a likely El Nino is still unknown. The general view is that a ‘weak’ El Nino will develop around the middle of 2014. Moreover, while drought years in India have often been El Nino years, the reverse does not hold. The year 1997 saw a ‘strong’ El Nino, yet the country recorded surplus monsoon rains. So, even if we have El Nino this time, there could be other meteorological phenomena that may well neutralise its impact. The south-west monsoon is, after all, the product of complex atmosphere-land-ocean system interactions that go beyond El Nino.

But even if one concedes the worst-case scenario — delayed or weak monsoons — there is no need to press the panic button. For one, the country has received good rains not just during the main south-west monsoon in 2013, but even from the subsequent north-east and winter season precipitations. This, apart from ensuring a bumper agricultural crop in 2013-14, has also resulted in water levels in major reservoirs currently being roughly 30 per cent higher than their last 10-year average. For another, global prices of most agri-commodities — be it wheat, corn, palm/soya oil or sugar — are ruling below last year’s levels; that applies to both current as well as futures quotes. The FAO Food Price Index is now nearly 15 per cent lower than its February 2011 peak. A bad monsoon is not going to have the same effect as in 2009, when world commodity prices were still on the rise. The effects this time will be largely on prices of vegetables and fruits, which are not importable and also vulnerable to domestic supply chain inefficiencies. Either way, the mere probability of a monsoon failure shouldn’t be cause for knee-jerk reactions such as export bans or an increase in interest rates. Right now, we don’t quite know how the monsoon will turn out and policy-making cannot be based on mere assumptions.

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