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It never rains but it pours. This adage seems apt for the Indian monsoon, which often leaves both flood and drought in its wake. This is because the monsoon calendar has changed. June and July have no longer been the main monsoon months in recent years. Rather, they are August, September and even October.
Those dependent on an April-November cycle — millions of kharif farmers, particularly in rainfed regions — are badly hit by delays in the onset of the monsoon and excessive rain towards the end of the season. The government should think in terms of crop insurance that takes the new climate pattern, which includes extreme weather occurrences, into account. Crop advisory services should adapt to the new normal. The sowing season for some crops may require to be modified, which includes short duration varieties.
Climate change has indeed arrived. In seven of the last 10 years, the monsoon has seen a rather dry start with weak rain in June. This June was the driest in a long time. Similarly, the July rain has been below normal in almost seven of the last 10 years.
The rising frequency of deviation in rainfall from the normal in the early phase is cause for concern, as a large chunk of our farm lands are rain-dependent. Delay or uneven distribution triggers the risk of a drought in at least a few of the 36 metrological sub-divisions, affecting kharif sowings. A delay in sowing results in lower crop output and heightens the risk of crop failure.
With rainfall concentrated in August and September, and extending to October, flooding too has become a serious problem. Late rain benefits rabi sowing, but the kharif season is adversely hit. While foodgrain output during rabi has increased steadily, kharif production has been somewhat volatile; erratic rain could be a factor.
Small farmers bear the brunt of these vagaries, whether at the start of the monsoon period or towards the end. About 70 per cent of the 11,000 farmers surveyed recently by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies revealed that their crops were destroyed at least once in the past three years.
The Budget has set up an adaptation fund to deal with the rising vagaries of nature. That’s only a small beginning.
Senior Assistant Editor
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