The BJP has slipped into a fragile situation in astoundingly quick time: it won only 12 of the 33 seats in the recently held Assembly by-elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to hit the campaign trail once again for the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, something he did not do for these elections. His presence may do the trick, just as Nitin Gadkari’s cannot, but we may not see the wave that characterised his pre-poll rallies. Hence, the fragility: the party has one vote-catcher and his rockstar-like appeal may have dimmed just a bit.

The results serve to put the May 16 verdict in perspective. Modi had drummed up the general elections as a personality contest between him and Rahul Gandhi — the charismatic subaltern versus a prince fumbling with his silver spoon. Central to Modi’s charm offensive was his promise of development. He must have been only too convincing, creating huge expectations. That’s also asking for trouble, since the onus is entirely on him, and not his party, to deliver the goods.

Modi seems to favour personality over party contests, so that he faces no threat from within BJP and the Sangh Parivar. His style, oddly reminiscent of an insecure Indira Gandhi, who too ran down other leaders, worked in Gujarat. But it may unravel on a national scale when he has more competition than Keshubbhai Patel and Praveen Togadia to deal with. Unless Modi shares power within the Government and the party, dissidence may gain ground. Election campaigns may be undermined; we may see calculated leaks on the Government’s slip-ups. Modi’s traditional friction with the upper castes may lead to issues with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. His style of dealing with opponents is to ensure that he remains the only effective vote-catcher. He works the media to this end.

Event and image management — playing drums in Japan and hosting the Chinese president on the banks of the Sabarmati — may succumb to the law of diminishing returns. Unless the economy turns around fortuitously — and that may actually happen if oil prices continue to fall — Modi’s not on sure ground. What next for the BJP?

Deputy Editor

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