Will Delhi’s odd-even rule work?

The odd-even formula is to be tried out once again in April, after its initial trial implementation in January this year. Repeated pilot testing assumes importance as an attempt to initiate behavioural change, making it acceptable before its permanent enforcement over time.

If this is so, two obvious questions arise: How effective is the current odd-even rule in addressing Delhi’s pollution at large? And what can be done to make it more acceptable and hence enforceable?

The data does not provide any conclusive evidence on the pollution front.

That said, interpreting pollution statistics gets notoriously difficult, given the impact of weather on readings and variations across localities, making a citywide measure impossible at times.

Despite these difficulties, available data points to other bigger sources of pollution such as dust and waste burning, coal burning in brick kilns and emissions from diesel generator sets. All these need to be looked into in order to arrive at a holistic solution.

There are other challenges to the odd-even rule, however, that the Government needs to address if it is looking forward to making this rule permanent. One pertinent issue is the glaring lack of infrastructure to enforce the rule. The two mass transport systems are buses and Metro services.

However, they are seriously inadequate. Apparently the public transport system in the city is short of around 5,000 buses leading to a dependence on private buses which suffer from poor fleet maintenance and non-availability of drivers.

Delhi Metro, though perceived to be super effective, suffers from concerns of accessibility of stations. There is a lack of adequate private parking space and last minute connectivity to work is an issue. The global norm for the distance between two stations is about 600 metres, which is half the 1.2 km average in Delhi.

Available road space for buses is another infrastructural issue. The Delhi government has announced the construction of two elevated bus-rapid transit (BRT) corridors in the city.

Suppose we assume that the Government takes up the responsibility of providing the necessary infrastructure. Would that be enough for the success of the odd-even formula? Here, three important concerns needs to be addressed.

First, the infrastructure has to be of such quality as to appeal to commuters. A shoddy and ill-maintained public transport system is unlikely to find acceptance among people using private transport.

Second, commuters have to feel safe on the road: this would refer to sober driving, human interaction, women’s safety and so on. New Delhi ranks 142nd in personal safety amongst 230 cities in the Mercer Quality of Living Survey 2016.

In October 2014, a Thompson Reuters Foundation report identified Delhi with Bogota as being among the most dangerous cities with the world’s worst transport system for women.

Has the perception changed dramatically since then?

Third is the mind-set. Even after ensuring quality and safety, changing people’s mind-set is a must in making public transport the most acceptable means of travelling. Here, repeated pilot testing comes in handy only if each subsequent implementation is able to address concerns raised in the previous phases.

There are other things that need to be done as well. For instance, there was a sudden jump in demand for taxis and autos in Delhi and adjoining areas during the first phase of the odd-even trial.

An effective regulatory mechanism needs to be thought of and implemented to protect commuters from being overcharged or refused. Merely issuing challans is unlikely to be an effective deterrent.

Efforts should be taken to popularise carpooling. Ensuring safe and easily accessible rideshare matching services on a continuous basis along with incentives could be thought of.

Globally, incentives adhered to have been preferred lanes and parking for carpools, reduced parking costs for carpools, park and ride facilities (for instance, car parks on the outer edges of the city with buses, rapid transit, light rail, E-vehicles, or carpools to reach the city centre).

Even employers have been encouraged to promote and incentivise carpooling through prize draws, coupons for local restaurants and entertainment, and emergency rides home for carpoolers to attend exigencies at home.

Even if all of these are genuinely tried out it would still address only one aspect of Delhi’s pollution problem. What’s needed is a comprehensive environmental policy under one framework addressing the major sources of pollution in Delhi. Is that feasible?

The writers are faculty at IMT Ghaziabad

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