With its bitter rival no more, DMK may fancy its power prospects

March 25, 1989 is a day that forever changed the already strained relations between the AIADMK and the DMK, and between AIADMK General Secretary and Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and her bête noire and DMK President M Karunanidhi.

That day, the Tamil Nadu Assembly witnessed unprecedented scenes, with both the parties presenting conflicting versions of the proceedings and peddling them as the truth. Jayalalithaa, then Leader of the Opposition, accused the DMK and two its ministers of molesting her, while the DMK maintained that Jayalalithaa had called Karunanidhi a “criminal” and tried to prevent him from reading out the Budget speech. Following this, Jayalalithaa refused to attend the Assembly so long as the DMK was in power; and, later, when Jayalalithaa became Chief Minister, Karunanidhi never participated in the Assembly proceedings.

It was a bitter rivalry, without even a semblance of civility between the two, although DMK Treasurer MK Stalin has occasionally struck a conciliatory tone. But the enmity between the two parties is so intense that there is little room for any such attempt to succeed.

Political observers recall this was not the case when AIADMK founder MG Ramachandran was the Chief Minister. MGR and Karunanidhi remained bitter critics, but there was always a line of back-channel communication open between the two.

The rivalry between the two parties since MGR’s death in 1987 has hurt Tamil Nadu, with each party, when in power, either scrapping or delaying projects initiated by the other. In most other States, despite intense political rivalry, personal animosity between leaders is not so marked.

Now that Jayalalithaa is no more, what will be the DMK’s game plan? It fancied its chances in the May 2016 Assembly elections, given the swirling rumours over Jayalalithaa’s health and anti-incumbency.

In the end, neither of this made a difference as Jayalalithaa led the AIADMK to a resounding victory. The only consolation for the DMK was that it had emerged as a stronger opposition than in the previous Assembly.

From its inception in the early 1970s, the AIADMK has been a strong personality-centric party; first with MGR at the helm, and then Jayalalithaa. The brief split in the party after MGR’s death in 1987 only reinforced the personality cult.

Over the years, Jayalalithaa has asserted her stamp of authority on the party, ushering in a form of cult worship never before seen in the State and even treating her die-hard loyalists with disdain.

When MGR was Chief Minister, one of the Ministers in his Cabinet famously said that all the Ministers were zeroes, and MGR was Number One. Under Jayalalithaa, the status of Ministers plunged even lower. In her first term as Chief Minister, during 1991-96, Ministers and MLAs resorted to ritual genuflection before her as a mark of submission to authority; in later years, falling flat at her feet became the norm. She was deified and glorified, in posters and cut-outs.

The question arises as to what will happen to such a party, now that she is no more. Jayalalithaa’s friend and confidante Sasikala, who was supposed to have wielded enormous clout behind the scenes, may not evoke the same kind of awe and authority. There is every possibility that the party will disintegrate in the absence of a strong leader.

That is what the DMK must be hoping will happen. But even if the AIADMK legislature party were to split, under the anti-defection law the splinter group will be considered a separate entity only if it accounts for more than two-thirds the party’s strength in the House. Else, its members will be disqualified.

Which means that at least 88 of the AIADMK’s 132 members have to break away and form a separate party for them to retain their seats. This will be just one seat less than the DMK’s own strength in the House. Such a formation may come with in-built instability.

The DMK must therefore be hoping that a split in the AIADMK legislature party will force an election.

It will then fancy its chances since the AIADMK may find it hard to recover from the blow dealt by Jayalalithaa’s death and the shock of a split in its ranks. Politically interesting times lie ahead.

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