Thiruvananthapuram, June 7
Major monsoon components have started disintegrating in anticipation of the system entering a confirmed weak phase during the next 24-48 hours.
Of these, the feeble low-level jet over the Arabian Sea and the poorly developed monsoon trough impact the mainland most. The Somali jet and the Mascarene high have also been badly compromised with, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).
No models show any revival of monsoon during the next seven days. Indications are that the weak phase will last much farther beyond. Dry westerlies are predominating the landscape and could even trigger a heat wave in the North-East, once the ongoing wet session ends. The ill-configured monsoon trough over the plains is seen retreating to the foothills of the Himalayas, a situation best associated with a break-monsoon period.
NCMRWF had predicted the possibility of monsoon shutting out briefly as early as May 30. The formation of the `low' over North Bay of Bengal had forced it to modify this during the intervening period but this stands negated.
According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather, there will be a hold on any northward or westward progress in the monsoon for another one, or potentially two weeks.