July is likely to end up with a deficit rainfall of about 10 per cent. Good rainfall in northwest likely for next 2-3 days.
Thiruvananthapuram, July 24
The South-West monsoon covered the entire country eight days behind schedule on Monday. The usual date is July 15.
According to an update by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the seasonal trough passed through Anupgarh, Sikar, Kanpur, Varanasi, Gaya, Asansol and thence to the Northeast Bay of Bengal on Monday.
TO SHIFT NORTH
Model predictions suggest that the monsoon trough is likely to maintain its near normal position during the next 2-3 days before shifting northward.
Under its influence, the ongoing rainfall activity over Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, East Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Sikkim and Gangetic West Bengal is expected to continue over the next two days as well.
The NCMRWF maintained its lookout for the formation of a fresh low pressure over the Northwest Bay of Bengal by the weekend. There is possibility of increase in rainfall activity over Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand. A western disturbance is seen approaching the hilly regions of the Northwest around this time.
Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology said the outlook for westerly flows continues to be good, which would be enough to sustain the active phase of the monsoon with or without a `low.'
Good rainfall is indicated for northwest India too for the next 2-3 days, with the incoming western disturbance interacting with the monsoon circulation.
This is what will force a northward movement of the seasonal trough, Dr Gupta said.
According to him, July is likely to end up with a deficit of around 10 per cent. The predicted `low' for the weekend is `too weak, too late' to warrant any drastic change to this outlook.