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Rainfall deficit remains at 14 pc

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Despite improvement in coverage

Vinson Kurian

The forecast


Some chronically

rain-deficit areas in Andhra Pradesh are in to get a dousing from the system.

The skies

are clearing up in North and Northwest India, but fresh rains from the new system are expected to hold sway for two to three days from August 3.

Thiruvananthapuram, July 27

The all-India weighted average rainfall for the season till Wednesday (July 26) for the country as a whole has retained the deficit figure of 14 per cent despite a marked improvement (from -32 per cent to -13 per cent) in recorded rainfall for the week ending concurrently.

July deficits are not easily recouped and are carried through the end of the season, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology. More so since the country has to contend with a high monthly rainfall base for August as well.

It is likely that July will end with a deficit of 10 per cent, if not more. This is after accounting for rainfall that may accrue from a brewing `low' in the Bay of Bengal basin, Dr Gupta told

Business Line

.

New circulation

Meanwhile, an upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over the Northwest Bay of Bengal off the Orissa-West Bengal coast on Thursday, which is expected to concentrate into a `low' within the next 24 hours.

The system is predicted to intensify and become a depression and move in a west-northwest direction, according to a forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting .

Describing the evolving system as a `fortuitous development over time and space,' Dr Gupta said that Central and North Peninsular India would benefit most from it. About time too, since rains have kept away from the region for more than week now.

Some chronically rain-deficit areas in Andhra Pradesh are in to get a dousing from the system.

Welcome rains have already fallen on parched lands in some parts of the State.

The system is seen dissipating after reaching western Madhya Pradesh, but it will have brought some areas in North India also under precipitation.

The skies are clearing up in North and Northwest India, but fresh rains from the new system are expected to hold sway for two to three days from August 3.

Crucial system

The brewing `low' could prove crucial at this juncture of monsoon in that the northward-migrating monsoon trough will be forced to stay put at its current alignment, helping to prolong the rain activity in the country's heartland.

In doing so, the system will appropriate to itself whatever moisture is available over the landmass. This is what will force the clearing up of the skies in North India for a short break from the weekend. But rains will return to the region early next week itself.

(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated July 28, 2006)
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