Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 31

TUESDAY'S upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Tamil Nadu and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal has churned its way overnight towards west-central Bay off the south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast bringing moderate rain to the peninsula.

Forecasts by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the rainfall activity over south peninsular India would continue for the next two days.

The centre maintained its outlook for monsoon withdrawing from extreme west Rajasthan over the next 3-4 days.

The southwest monsoon extended its break phase on Wednesday with the axis of the rain-driving seasonal trough aligned close to the foothills of the Himalayas. Rainfall activity continued to be subdued over most parts of the country.

Pacific Typhoons: As has been often noticed, the break-monsoon has come to be accompanied by a corresponding busying up of activity over the northwest Pacific. Two named typhoons have been marching in the large open ocean to the east of the subcontinent since Tuesday.

Of this, the dangerous Typhoon Talim was located approximately 240 nautical miles to the southeast of Taipei on forenoon of Wednesday and is expected to make a landfall over northern Taiwan in the next 24 hours.

According to the Hawaii-based Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, the mountainous terrain of Taiwan will possibly cause the system to stall on the eastern coast. Once out of Taiwan, the system will continue moving west-northwestward but slightly weakened into southeast China over the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Nabi, located approximately 35 nautical miles northeast of Saipan, has tracked a west-northwestward course but is expected to avoid inhabited terrain before running through its course largely in the ocean.

Back home, the upper air cyclonic circulation extending between 2.1 to 4.5 km above sea level over Gujarat and neighbourhood has persisted. The north-south trough extending up to 1.5 km above sea level running from the Northeastern States to the North Bay of Bengal has shifted slightly with the northern end moving westward into Bihar.

Poor monsoon flows: NCMRWF predictions suggest poor chances of revival of the monsoon flow and consequently no perceptible change in overall weather conditions over the next 3-4 days.

Rainfall activity is expected to remain confined to the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and south peninsular India with subdued rainfall activity over the rest the country during the period.

The anti-cyclonic circulation at 3.1 km above mean sea level dropping anchor over northwest India is seen dominating weather in that part of the country for the next 4-5 days. Under its influence, the region is likely to witness mainly dry weather situation.

(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated September 1, 2005)
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