Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 19

SUNDAY's deep depression over northwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwest and intensified into a cyclonic storm the same evening.

In an update, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the system had crossed north Andhra Pradesh near Kalingapatnam on Monday morning and has since lain over land centred close to Kalingapatnam. It is likely to move west-northwest and weaken gradually. Model prediction suggests that it might sustain up till the weekend and stay weakened as a low-pressure area.

Under these conditions, widespread rain with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, south Orissa and Chhattisgarh for the next 24 hours. The heavy rainfall zone is expected later to shift over to Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Vidarbha. Concurrently, the regions of Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka and east Rajasthan are likely to experience fairly widespread rains.

During the past 24 hours, fairly widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls have occurred over the north Andhra Pradesh-south Orissa coasts and south Chhattisgarh. Light to moderate to scattered rainfall have also occurred over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, interior Orissa, Konkan, Goa, Telangana, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal.

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat and adjoining south Rajasthan moved westwards and lay over southeast Pakistan and neighbourhood extending up to middle troposphere. It is likely to become insignificant.

Isolated to scattered rains are likely over Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh during the next 3-4 days. The wet weather is likely to intensify during the weekend over the region.

Significantly, the NCMRWF reported that all-India weekly rainfall activity improved considerably to 34 per cent above normal during the week ending on September 14. All India cumulative rainfall percentage departure has also improved to five per cent below normal during June 1-September 14 from eight per cent below normal up the previous week.

(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated September 20, 2005)
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