To intensify further
Thiruvananthapuram, Aug. 29
The well marked `low' over North Bay of Bengal off the North Orissa/West Bengal coast concentrated into a depression on Tuesday with signs of further intensification prior to crossing land.
The dynamics are also changing with each round of intensification, and the system is assumed to take a west-northwest course initially and then change to north-northwest, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.
This would take the system to Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh, from where it would take a turn to the northwest for setting up an interaction with an incoming western disturbance.
The resulting rain activity will bring Northwest India also under cover.
But a current reading of the unfolding scenario suggests that the flooded Barmer in Rajasthan would be spared.
Those areas likely to be targeted are in the rest of Northwest India, including East Rajasthan, Punjab-Haryana-Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh, Dr Gupta said.
The interaction of the two systems would last no more than 36-48 hours and that's when bulk of the rain will fall in these areas.
InteractionIt is likely that Friday (September 2) will see the maximum precipitation occur in this manner. The interaction will cause the monsoon system to spend itself out `then and there', clearly giving areas such as Barmer and Jaisalmer the miss. On the other hand, the dominant western disturbance will keep moving east leaving the weakened monsoon system behind.In its update, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the Bay system is likely to cross the Orissa coast between Balasore and Puri by early Wednesday morning. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls is likely at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall (25 cm or more) at one or two places in Orissa.Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period. The rainfall activities are expected to extend towards East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh during the next three to four days.Squally winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off the Orissa, West Bengal and North Andhra coasts during the next 24 hours. The sea condition will be rough to very rough during the same period.