Global model predictions favour enhanced probability of above average rainfall for north India during the week ending August 21.
Adjoining plains of the foothills of the Himalayas are expected to receive heavy to heavy rainfall variously during this period.
The north-eastern States, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Delhi, Haryana north and adjoining west Rajasthan may receive varying amounts of rain. Rains are also indicated for the southernmost peninsula, especially Kerala, during this phase.
Northwest Pacific typhoon (cyclone) ‘Kai-Tak’ and a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal are the principal factors contributing to this wet phase.
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services sees more rains materialising for the southern peninsula during the last week of the month. Kerala, Tamil Nadu and parts of southern Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are likely to benefit from this session, it said.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Friday evening said that the monsoon was active over Jharkhand, Bihar and Kerala during past 24 hours until morning.
The causative low-pressure areas persisted over northwest Bay of Bengal. It is likely to cut a path to the north-northwest towards the Himalayan foothills. Enabling conditions are developing towards the north and northwest of the country, the IMD said.
A warning valid for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Kerala and coastal Karnataka during next two days.
Heavy rainfall has been forecast also at one or two places over Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Lakshadweep during this period.
An extended outlook valid until Friday next said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. These rains are expected to be particularly intense on Monday and Tuesday.
Rain has also been forecast at many places over the North-eastern States, Central India and the Indo-Gangetic plains. vinson.kurian@