Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, July 7

THE monsoon trough is in tact and is tracking a southeast-northwest alignment, with the western disturbance and the overland low-pressure area moving away from each other to a safe distance after their interaction on Thursday.

As if on cue, the fresh cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal descended to a lower level prior to concentrating to a `low'. The emerging scenario indicates an increase in rainfall activity in the southern peninsula for 3-4 days from this weekend.

Speaking to Business Line, Dr Akhilesh Sharma, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), said the rain-scarce regions of Telangana, Rayalaseema and Marathwada would benefit from the increased rain activity.

Sowing operations in these regions, let down badly in the monsoon onset and revival phases, will get a new lease of life, though with some changes.

Dry sowing for cotton and sorghum is complete in Marathwada, and these areas badly need rain for further sowing operations. Sowing for soyabean and green gram should have been over in Telangana by June 30. If rains were to be delayed July 5, as they have already been, the advisory favoured a shift to sunflower, castor, maize and cotton. The only condition is that desi varieties would have to be used instead of hybrids.

Favourably oriented: The turn for the good is being made possible by the favourable orientation of the cyclonic circulation, which is following a westward course unlike in the case of the first `low' that moved with a bias to the north. Even coastal Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh also can look forward to get some rains in this spell.

The descending cyclonic circulation will also bring rainfall to north coastal Tamil Nadu, including Chingleput and Chennai districts, interior Karnataka and Kerala.

In its update, the NCMRWF said the slow-moving well-marked low-pressure area over southwest Uttar Pradesh further weakened into a low pressure on Thursday afternoon and was positioned over northeast Rajasthan and adjoining Haryana. The system is likely to further weaken and move slowly in west-north-westerly direction.

More rains in northwest: The interaction of the two atmospheric systems in the northwest will continue to bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains in the hilly region in most parts of northwest India, viz. Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Northeast Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh, during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the heavy rainfall activity over the region is expected to reduce.

In the north and the northwest, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity is expected during the next 24 hours. Hilly areas of northwest India may receive isolated heavy to very heavy rains during this period. Thereafter, the heavy rainfall activity over the region is expected to reduce.

In the east and the northeast, scattered to fairly widespread activity is expected over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and the northeastern States.

In central India, fairly widespread rainfall, punctuated by isolated heavy falls, are expected over east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha over the next 3-4 days. West Madhya Pradesh may also receive scattered to fairly widespread rains during this period.

(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated July 8, 2005)
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