Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 14
THE `break monsoon' phase is seen extending for another 48 hours, subsequent to which the upper air cyclonic circulation over North Bay of Bengal will concentrate into a low-pressure area leading to revival of the rain activity in central India.
According to the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), States in the east and east central regions such as Orissa, Jharkhand, East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will experience enhancement in rainfall activity within the next two days.
In another significant observation, the NCMRWF said with the maturing of the `low', the eastern end of the monsoon trough is likely to shift southward into the head Bay of Bengal. This situation may be helpful for penetration of monsoon easterlies into the plains of north India.
Earlier assessments had indicated that the revival phase could be weak and the monsoon easterlies blowing in from the Bay would be able to get no farther into the plains than east Uttar Pradesh.
Monsoon has been in a break phase now for the past week or so. The axis of the monsoon trough had remained close to the foothills of the Himalayas. Model predictions now suggest that the trough will revert to its normal position (north-northwest to east-southeast) within the next 4-5 days.
In its weather update and forecast for the next five days, the NCMRWF said isolated rain episodes have been reported from the north and northwest regions of the country during the past 24 hours. With the possible revival of monsoon and setting in of easterlies over the region, the rainfall activity may increase during next 2-3 days.
In the east and the northeast, scattered to fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are likely over the Northeastern States and adjoining sub-Himalayan West Bengal during the next 48 hours. Subsequently, the rainfall activity over Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand is likely to increase whereas the activity over Northeastern States and sub-Himalayan West Bengal may reduce appreciably.
In central India, States such as Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha are likely to receive isolated to scattered rains during the next 48 hours. Subsequently, rainfall activity is likely to increase to fairly widespread, especially over Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh.
Towards the south, scattered rainfall is likely over the region except over Tamil Nadu where it is likely to be isolated during next 3-4 days.
In the west, rainfall over Konkan and Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat may increase after the revival of the monsoon flow.
East and west Rajasthan may receive isolated to scattered rainfall during next 4-5 days.