Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 28

THURSDAY'S deep depression has split into two independent systems, with one having crossed land between Ongole and Bapatla on the Andhra Pradesh coast and the other still located out into the neighbouring waters of the Bay of Bengal.

Earlier on Friday morning, the deep depression was traced lying centred close to Ongole. The routine afternoon forecast said that the system was about to cross the Andhra coast between Ongole and Bapatla `within a few hours.'

Giving the latest update, Dr K.J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) informed Business Line about the system having since bifurcated into siblings based on land and sea. "We are keeping a wait-and-watch attitude on how the twins are shaping up," he added.

One possibility is that the land system could weaken and spend itself out since its tenure on the warm waters has been cut-off. On the other hand, the very base on the warm waters could help the other system thrive and even become active later.

A second possibility is of the systems feeding each other to become stronger and re-build at their respective locations. This is how the Bay-based systems for sometime now this season have been interacting with a counterpart but weaker system in the Arabian Sea, which effectively prepared the groundwork for northeast monsoon systems to develop till date.

On Friday, the northeast monsoon has been vigorous over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Rainfall occurred at most places in these regions and at a few places in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Telangana and north Interior Karnataka and mainly dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep.

The NCMRWF forecast for the next five days said that widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during the next two days. Isolated heavy rainfall may also occur over interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Orissa during the next 24 to 36 hours. Scattered rains may continue thereafter.

In region-wise forecasts, it said isolated to scattered rainfall activity is expected over the north eastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Isolated rains may also occur over the rest areas of the region except over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where mainly dry weather may prevail during the next three days.

In central India, scattered rains are likely over Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during the next two days, before tapering off subsequently.

In the South, the overall rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala may decrease after 24 hours. In the West, isolated to scattered rainfall activity is expected over Maharashtra.

(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated October 29, 2005)
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