What is the endemic stage of a virus spread?

It’s something we hear often from virologists, that we need to learn to live with the virus. That’s the endemic stage, where the virus does not quite go away, but surfaces on and off, possibly seasonally. The number of years to get to an endemic stage varies from virus to virus, it could be two to three years, as seen with the 1918 pandemic, or a year, like H1N1 (swine flu), called a pandemic in 2009 and declared over in 2010. In fact, H1N1 surfaces in India largely during the winter season. In the western countries, influenza is a concern every winter, especially for the elderly and vulnerable population.

In what way is it different from an epidemic or a pandemic?

An epidemic is when the infection or disease is seen in a localised or limited geographic area. A pandemic is when it spreads across geographies, across continents.

Has Covid-19 reached the endemic stage?

While it may seem so, virologists are holding their horses on waving the endemic flag. Similar calls had been made after the destructive Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus last year, but then came the highly transmissible Omicron variant. This particular coronavirus has been unpredictable and its various variants have been seen to be quite independent. For instance Omicron is not a “progeny” of Delta, says a veteran virologist. And for that reason, they say, it is difficult to predict if another variant could emerge and whether it would be more transmissible or stealthy — escaping detection or unstoppable by existing vaccines.

So does that mean we could go back to square one?

In 2020, the world population was “naive” to the virus, and hence the rapid spread, followed by over-whelmed hospitals and rising death toll. Now the ground reality is very different, with Omicron having infected many; there is degree of vaccine coverage and in terms of treatment too there are several tools in the medicine-kit. So the population of the totally unexposed is much less. And for these reasons, the world is on a better footing to tackle new variants. — though we still need to be watchful.

How long before we see the virus becoming endemic?

Virologists say they would like to watch for one more season, through rain and winter, to see how the world fares. But the stringent measures of 2020 are most likely behind us for now, they add.

Doctors say people should continue to follow public health measures including sporting masks, especially in crowded places, besides basic cough hygiene, distancing and handwashing. Doing away with mask mandates, as the United Kingdom has done for instance, is a tad reckless, they say.

Is it safe to assume that Covid-19 will become harmless once it becomes endemic?

Across the world, the Omicron variant has been seen to cause less hospitalisation. But given the unpredictable nature of this virus, all that specialists venture to say is that the world needs to be watchful. People can breathe a lot easier, so to speak, but we are not quite at the finish-line, yet.

comment COMMENT NOW