A recent study by Indian scientists has indicated that parts of Bay of Bengal, South China Sea, and South Indian Ocean can experience higher wave activity in the future, posing a serious threat to coastal communities.

The study focused on future extreme wind-wave projections and their relationship with wind speed, sea-level pressure, and sea-surface temperature for the mid- and end-century under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios — RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 — projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),

Extreme wave heights are seen to intensify by about 1 m over the South Indian Ocean from June to August. An increase of 0.4 m in maximum significant wave heights is projected over regions in the North Indian Ocean, northwest Arabian Sea, northeast Bay of Bengal, and South China Sea, says the joint study by IIT-Kharagpur, National Institute of Technology, Delhi, and the government’s Climate Change Programme.

The end-century projections identified the hotspots for extreme wind activity over the central Bay of Bengal, with magnitudes reaching 13-15 m per second, projecting the likelihood of more extreme events in this region. Projected changes during the mid- and end-century showed a dipole behaviour or seesaw effect having two distinct dipoles over the western and eastern regions in the tropical Indian Ocean belt. Regions in the northern, central, and eastern sectors of the Bay of Bengal, the southern part of the South China Sea, northern and western regions of Arabian Sea, and eastern tropical Indian Ocean can witness changes of 1-1.25 m by the end-century.

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