Indian passenger electric vehicles will be primarily driven by government and corporate procurements only over the next four years, a study report has said.

“India’s car market is driven by very affordable (below $10,000) small vehicles, and the Indian government has not shown any appetite to provide subsidies that would be required to make electric passenger vehicles affordable for private citizens in the short term,” it said.

Based on the procurement trends, annual passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales may reach 30,000 units by 2022, compared to only 2,000 units in 2017, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in its ‘Long-term electric vehicle outlook 2018’ report on Friday.

And, low average vehicle prices will inhibit EV uptake for the next 10 years before adoption rises in the 2020s, the study said. “Progress on e-bikes, rickshaws and e-buses looks promising over the next 10 years. But, we expect EVs to represent just 10 per cent of India’s total passenger vehicle fleet in 2040,” the report said.

It also said that instead of following China, India has different opportunities for the electrification in transport sector. Electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers look much promising for the next 10 years.

“India is a priority country for Bloomberg globally, and one whose power and transport sectors are expected to fundamentally change by mid-century with its economic transformation,” Jon Moore, Chief Executive Officer, Bloomberg NEF, said here. India is often touted as the next big electric vehicle market set to follow China’s lead. However, low average vehicle prices will inhibit EV uptake for the next 10 years, Ashish Sethia, Head of Research, Asia Pacific for Bloomberg NEF, said.

“After 2030, we expect EV sales in India to accelerate with increased affordability, as well as the government’s efforts to ensure universal access to electricity which lower challenges with charging infrastructure,” he said.