Maruti Suzuki will likely face an uphill task in scaling up production at its Manesar plant, even after it restarts operations, say analysts and industry experts. This is because the carmaker could face resignations at the officer level, from those wary of going back to work after the violence. Also, with many workers now expected to be suspended after the investigations, initial worker strength will also be lower.

The company is expected to take at least a month to resume production at Manesar — a critical facility that accounted for 40 per cent of the cars sold between April and June this year.

“The families of officers will not be ready to let them go back to work so easily. The only way is to provide assurance and security. If forced by the company, some may even choose to leave,” a company official said.

Mr Deepesh Rathore, MD at IHS India, said the biggest challenge will be to re-establish trust between workers and officers. To reduce any chances of fresh trouble, the company may experiment with putting new faces and mix supervisors and workers with those working at Gurgaon.

“It will take many months for normal situation return. The may be some resignations as well, but not a large number. The second quarter will definitely be hit, but it should be contained in that. About 40 per cent of buyers will walk away to other brands,” he said.

At maximum, IHS estimates that volume loss may climb to 65,000 units. At an average price of Rs 5.6 lakh per car, this could lead to Rs 3,640 crore revenue loss.

Union Dissolved

Company officials have also indicated that the Manesar plant Union, Maruti Suzuki Workers Union (MSWU), now stands dissolved, so organising existing workers may be a challenge. This Union was registered just nine months back, after last year’s strike at the same facility which stretched from June to October.

This is because arrest warrants have been issued from 11 union leaders, including MSWU President Mr Ram Mehar Singh, for their alleged involvement in last Wednesday’s violence, which left a company official dead and 96 injured. One Union leader, Yogesh, is already under arrest.

Mr S. Y. Siddiqui, Maruti’s COO for Administration (IT, HR) said, “So far resignations have not been part of discussions as we’re focussing on rehabilitating the injured and supporting their families. We expect the investigation to be speed.”

With Gurgaon Police arresting many workers and hundreds expected to be suspended for the involvement in the clash, Maruti could fall short of labour to run the plant. Like last year, alternatives such as asking component suppliers to pitch in with labour and shifting workers from the other Gurgaon facility, may be adopted.

roudra.b@thehindu.co.in

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