The next Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) will be from Latin America, with Brazil and Mexico emerging as the final contenders for the widely contested post.

“After consultation with all members and asking them to give two preferences, it was decided that Heremino Blanco from Mexico and Roberto Carvalho de Azevedo from Brazil are the finalists,” a source at the WTO office said.

With Indonesian Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangetsu out of the race, the choice is now not so difficult for India.

“Brazil and Indonesia have fought together to protect the cause of the poorer countries at the WTO. Mexico may be a developing country, but it has seldom worked with other countries to promote common issues. As Indonesia is now out, we know exactly whom to support,” an Indian Government official told Business Line .

The other two contestants in the final five defeated by Mexico and Brazil included Tim Groser from New Zealand and Taeho Bark from Republic of Korea.

“On May 1, the Chairs (heads of WTO bodies facilitating the selection process) will continue with consultations through May 7. On May 8, there would be a heads of delegation meeting and the Chairs will give their assessment of the candidate likely to garner consensus,” the WTO official said.

The election process for the next DG, who will replace Pascal Lamy on September 1, is being keenly followed by trade policy watchers because of the precarious way the deadlocked Doha round of multilateral trade talks is perched.

Bali ministerial

The future of the 12-year-old round, many feel, is linked to the success of the forthcoming WTO Ministerial meeting in Bali, Indonesia, where the membership is trying to work out a pact on a handful of issues.

“Since there is already a wide divide between the US and developing countries like India and Indonesia on key issues like farm subsidies for poor farmers and trade facilitation, the new DG’s background could play a key role in determining where the negotiations head,” the official said.

If there is a DG who is sympathetic to the problems being faced by developing countries, there may be slightly better chances of India’s voice being heard sympathetically.

Pascal Lamy, who is from France and was elected for two four-year terms in a row, doesn’t believe that the DG can influence results.

“The negotiations are in the hands of members. The DG can facilitate in passing messages here and there. If I had any responsibility in the failure of the ministerial in 2008, I would not have been elected again in 2009,” Lamy told journalists.

The going will certainly not be easy for Brazil from here on, as the US is expected to put its weight behind its friend Mexico. The final lap will be evenly contested as both countries are from the same region. The results are scheduled to be declared by May-end.

> amiti.sen@thehindu.co.in

(The reporter is on a trip sponsored by Germany-based think-tank FES and the World Trade Organisation)

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