ADB lowers India growth forecast for 2021-22 to 10 per cent

Our Bureau New Delhi | Updated on July 20, 2021

It has, however, raised the growth projection for next fiscal to 7.5 per cent

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees Indian economy growing 10 per cent during the current fiscal (2021-22). This is reflected in the supplement to ADB’s flagship economic publication, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021, released on Tuesday.

The latest economic growth projection is lower than the 11 per cent growth forecast for India in the ADO in April this year.

However, for the next fiscal 2022-23, ADB has, in the latest supplement, raised the economic growth projection for India to 7.5 per cent from 7 per cent estimated earlier.

In the latest supplement, ADB is projecting 7.2 per cent economic growth for developing Asia this year, compared with its 7.3 per cent forecast in April as renewed coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreaks slow the recovery in some economies in the region. The growth outlook for 2022 is upgraded to 5.4 per cent from 5.3 per cent.

ADB committed $3.92 billion lending in 2020

The supplement to ADB’s flagship economic publication, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021, provides updated projections for the region’s economies and inflation levels amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Covid, biggest risk

“Asia and the Pacific’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic continues, although the path remains precarious amid renewed outbreaks, new virus variants, and an uneven vaccine rollout,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “On top of containment and vaccination measures, phased and strategic rejuvenation of economic activities — for instance, trade, manufacturing, and tourism — will be key to ensure that the recovery is green, inclusive, and resilient.”

ADB provided $1.5-billion fiscal support to India for pandemic response

The Covid-19 pandemic remains the biggest risk to the outlook, as outbreaks continue in many economies. Daily confirmed cases in the region peaked at about 434,000 in mid-May. They narrowed to about 1,09,000 at the end of June, concentrated mainly in South Asia, South-East Asia, and the Pacific. Meanwhile, the vaccine roll-out in the region is gaining pace, with 41.6 doses administered per 100 people by the end of June — above the global average of 39.2, but below rates of 97.6 in the US and 81.8 in the European Union.

Published on July 20, 2021

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