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The Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC report on ‘Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ refers India as one of the countries that will be economically harmed the most by climate change. The country’s per capita GDP is already lower by 16 per cent than it would have been without human-caused warming since 1991.
India is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and will see a shift in the entire coastline. Mumbai ranked second to incur significant economic losses due to submergence due to sea-level rise, points out Pushpendra Johari, Senior Vice-President, Sustainability at consultancy RMSI.
Juhu Airport at risk
“As per our analysis, around 14.4 km of the road network and approximately 571 key buildings (in Mumbai) are potentially at risk from inundation due to rising sea levels,” Johari told BusinessLine.
Areas around the Mithi river, parts of Colaba including Sagar Mata Temple, Priyadarshani Park, area behind Shree Mahalakshmi Temple and the Breach Candy Hospital, Haji Ali Durgah, coastal areas around Worli, including all clusters next to Mahim Fort will likely be submerged.
Juhu airport is at risk as water may cross the road after high tides and enter the airport. The area around Jawahar Lal Nehru Port Trust will also be run over by water. Low-lying regions will see a direct and immediate impact compared to elevated regions. It will potentially damage fish breeding coastal areas impacting local fishing livelihoods.
Inundation mapping
In Johari’s view, in light of the new sea-level rise forecasts for 2050, the government should initiate a project towards creating India’s new coastline, inundation mapping and disaster preparedness along the entire coastline. Once the new coastline is prepared, all areas located to the left of the new coastline (towards the ocean), whether residential, industrial or infrastructure, would need to be relocated.
Additionally, the increase in the water level of all rivers and creeks should be modeled and areas permanently underwater marked out. Inundation mapping for Mumbai and other cities at risk due to rising sea levels becomes a high priority in the context.
“All this should be incorporated into a Decision Support System (DSS) to guide planners relocate assets to the left of the new coastline; plan new development in light of the recent flood risk maps; and decide on plinth levels and basements and so on. This DSS will also support forecasting risk in extreme rainfall and cyclone events,” Johari said.
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