2016 weather woes to hit spices’ prospects this year

The impact of deficient monsoon rains in 2016 in Kerala is going to be severe as far as the spices such as small cardamom and pepper are concerned. The severity of its effect on the crop, supply and demand would be felt in 2017.

Small cardamom output during the current season (August-June) is going to be 40 per per cent of the previous crop. It is estimated to be somewhere between 12,000 and 15,000 tonnes as against over 30,000 tonnes in 2015-16 season.

As a result, there is going to be a mismatch between demand and supply with the former outstripping the latter pushing up the prices in 2017.

Change in food habits coupled with the improvement in standard of living of the people have raised the per capita consumption of this aromatic spice. Consequently, there has been a steady growth in demand estimated at 3-5 per cent per annum, trade sources said.

At the same time, export demand also stays somewhere between 3,000 and 5,000 tonnes per year. Good size and colour and better aroma has given the Indian cardamom superiority over its competitors in the world market, they claimed.

Apprehension about a poor crop has built up a bullish sentiment in the markets and as a result the prices started picking up from mid-April to cross ₹800/kg in June. Subsequently, the prices touched ₹1,300 in early November. However, following the demonetisation the prices dipped to below ₹1,200 which was momentary and has witnessed a reversal later in December.

But, the rise in prices did not cheer up the farmers as it has not raised their total revenue following a sharp fall in the productivity per acre.

The total round of picking for last year’s crop was limited to three as against the normal six rounds, PC Punnoose, General Manager, CPMC, told BusinessLine. As a result, the total production is estimated to be below 15,000 tonnes as against around 30,000 tonnes the season before, he said.

The pepper crop in 2016-17, harvesting for which is to begin in full swing after mid-January, is unlikely to show an upsurge as has been projected earlier because of the erratic weather conditions prevailed throughout the year in 2016.

Deficient rains have affected the vines besides impacting pollination and berry formation, PV Eliyas, a farmer in Meenangadi (Wayanad), said. According to him, the crop in Wayanad district — the second main growing region in Kerala — would remain between 2,000 and 2,500 tonnes. In Karnataka also the situation is said to be not different. According to Sunil, a grower in Sakhleshpur, the unfavourable weather conditions have affected the vines and as a result “we would be getting a crop which we got in 2013-14.”

The trade has, however, estimated the Karnataka crop at around 22,000 tonnes. According to the trade the total 2016-17 output might be around 50,000 tonnes. Official projection for 2017 has put the production at 55,500 tonnes as against 48,500 tonnes in 2016.

The scanty rains last year have turned out to be favourable for the cloves as it resulted in more reproductive shoots leading to a good crop in 2017, M Subramaniam, Secretary, Maramalai Planters Association (MPA) in the Kannyakumari district of Tamil Nadu, told BusinessLine .

He said the growers were expecting a substantial increase of 60 per cent over the previous crop. A total production of around 2,000 tonnes this year likely as against around 1,200 tonnes last year.

In Nagercoil, a main trading centre for cloves in south India, the prices are down to around ₹700 a kg. Sharp fall in indigenous production of this commodity has, in fact, more than doubled its imports in five years.

If in 2010-11 the imports were at 7,000 tonnes valued at ₹153.37 crore they were at 14,950 tonnes valued at ₹771.13 crore in 2014-15, according to Spices Board sources.

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