All is not that sweet for sugarcane

In sugarcane, unlike other monsoon-dependent crops, the bulk of planting for the ensuing 2011-12 crushing season (October-September) is already over.

The country's No. 1 sugar producer, Maharashtra, grows three cane crops. The 18-month adsali cane is planted during April-July, which is followed by a ‘pre-seasonal' crop of 15 months sown from July to December. Besides, there is a third 12-month suru crop planted in January and early February.

Given that the adsali and pre-seasonal cane being planted now would be crushed only from October 2012, it means that the fate of the 2011-12 season crop is already ‘sealed' in terms of area (the pre-seasonal crop accounts for three-fourths of the State's cane, with adsali and suru making up 15 per cent and 10 per cent)

The same is the case for Uttar Pradesh (UP), where farmers plant cane during March-May, which is ready for crushing the following February-March. In addition, there is a 9-10 month ‘ratoon' that grows from the stubble of the previously harvested plant-cane. The cane to be crushed in the 2011-12 season would, thus, include the ratoon from the plant-cane harvested this February-March.

The current monsoon season rainfall would, in other words, impact not the area as much as yields of the cane to be processed by mills in the forthcoming season.

Production prospects

The 2010-11 season has seen total sugar production of 239.73 lakh tonnes (lt) as on June 15, compared with 189.12 lt for the whole of 2009-10. With crushing completed in all States — barring Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra — output for this season may end up at around 245 lt.

Among the States to have finished crushing, UP has produced 58.83 lt (against 51.79 lt in 2009-10), Gujarat 12.50 lt (11.89 lt), Andhra Pradesh 10.06 lt (5.15 lt), Haryana 3.92 lt (2.48 lt), Bihar 3.85 lt (2.58 lt), Uttarakhand 3.02 lt (2.92 lt) and Punjab 2.99 lt (1.81 lt). Karnataka had, till June 15, produced 36.15 lt (versus 25.58 lt for the entire 2009-10 season), while the corresponding figure for Maharashtra, till June 24, was 90.38 lt (70.67 lt).

What are the prospects for the new season? The Maharashtra Government has estimated the total area under cane for crushing during 2011-12 at 10.50 lakh hectares (lh), up from the 10.22 lh for the current season. This would yield about 850 lt for crushing – against the 804-805 lt for 2010-11, resulting in a sugar output of 97-98 lt at 11.5 per cent recovery.

Divergent view

But the estimate is disputed by others. “I don't think we will even touch 85 lt. I also doubt if farmers have increased cane area because they did not get a good price, even while their costs of planting and labour have substantially gone up,” said Mr Raju Shetty of Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghtana, an organisation representing growers.

During 2009-10, Maharashtra mills paid growers an average ex-field price of Rs 2,150 a tonne, whereas this time, they have only declared a first instalment rate ranging from Rs 1,750 to Rs 2,000. “It is more profitable to grow banana, soyabean, turmeric and vegetables,” Mr Shetty claimed.

In UP, the Cane Commissioner's office at Lucknow is expected to collate district-wise area data, based on joint surveys by factories and cane societies, by the month-end. Preliminary indications point to a 10 per cent increase, though farmers have been complaining of severe labour shortages for planting and inter-culture (weeding) operations.

“How much of all this will affect yields is not known. Labour is definitely a problem, as growers have had to shell out Rs 25-30 a quintal for harvesting their cane, as against Rs 15-20 last year,” noted Dr G.S.C Rao, CEO, Simbhaoli Sugars Ltd.

In all, UP could produce about 65 lt of sugar in the new season, with the corresponding all-India number adding up to 260 lt or thereabouts.

Needless to say, these estimates are subject to uncertainties, not excluding the vagaries of the monsoon.

K.V. Kurmanath reports from Hyderabad:

In Andhra Pradesh, low morale of paddy farmers has resulted in shift to sugarcane. “Sugarcane area is likely to go up by 20 per cent this year to five lakh acres from about four lakh acres last year. Assured yields of not less than 25 tonnes and plenty of crushing capacity around induce farmers to sugar cane. This is the reason for farmers to stick on to sugar cane despite not-so-favourable policy environment and delayed payments by factories,” Mr N.S.V Sharma, a sugarcane farmers from Hanuman Junction in Krishna district, said.

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