A monsoon depression that grew out of a churn in the central Arabian Sea, away from the Indian coast, is now expected to intensify as a deep depression.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained the outlook, and said that the system may travel towards the Gulf of Eden.

But guidance from a few global models say that there is a continued possibility that the storm may be yanked away to the northeast by a prevailing western disturbance system over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir.

An IMD outlook for the next three days said that the westerly system may stay put over the region for the duration of the period.

This northeastward track could bring a progressively weakening system towards the Karachi coast and could even push some rain into southwest Rajasthan and north Gujarat.

TROUGH IN BAY

Meanwhile, the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said that the proximity of land and less than optimum sea-surface temperatures might cap the possibilities of the Arabian Sea system growing further in intensity.

To the other side of the peninsula, the rain-driving trough shifted back to its alignment from southwest Bay of Bengal to west-central Bay.

An IMD weather warning valid for the next two days said that heavy rainfall would lash one or two places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

NEXT ‘LOW'?

Insat imagery on Sunday afternoon showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of east Jammu and Kashmir, south Kerala, south Tamil Nadu, south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and northwest, central and south Arabian Sea.

A circulation is shown building to the southwest of Sri Lanka, which could develop as a follow-up low-pressure system in the south and southeast Arabian Sea off Kerala coast.

Some global models have signalled to the prospects of the system gathering some strength, though there is no clear indication where it could be headed.

Related Topics
comment COMMENT NOW