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A persisting low-pressure area over the central Bay of Bengal has failed to rustle up strength and moved in to the southwest Bay closer to the Sri Lanka-Tamil Nadu coast.
A ‘chilled-out’ sea surface after a predecessor rained it out during an extended stay over the central and southwest Bay last weekend had put paid to any hopes of the incumbent gaining much strength.
The core of the system is approaching south Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka and could generate rain over the coast and progressively into adjoining interior peninsula over the next couple of days.
In this manner, rains will grow into south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala apart from coastal, north and south interior Karnataka, an India Met Department update said.
Meanwhile, international weather models agree a rain-maker Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave may strengthen over Africa and move slowly eastwards over the Indian Ocean in the next two weeks.
The MJO wave travels periodically from west to east from the western hemisphere into Africa before entering the Indian Ocean and progressively into the Pacific.
Fresh MJO waveThe wave travels high in the atmosphere but exerts major influence over cloud formation at the ground level as it traverses over the region.
It sets up low-pressure areas, depressions and even cyclones and has also been associated with the onset of the monsoons. It has a dry phase with exactly the opposite effect at the ground level.
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, there is some variation in how fast the MJO is likely to move across the Indian Ocean.
Some models say it would enter the Maritime Continent (the Indonesian archipelago et al) by the end of the fortnight.
Outlook for BayNot surprisingly, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees possibility of some action being triggered in the Bay of Bengal between November 20 and 28.
This would be of crucial interest for Tamil Nadu, parts of which are still suffering from a rain deficit during the northeast monsoon till date.
Shrikesh Pandiyan, a weather enthusiast based in Chennai, told BusinessLine over phone that Kanchipuram, Tiruchirapalli, Thiruvannamalai and Vellore districts have posted significant rain deficits.
Chennai may have recorded excess rain of 31 per cent but the catchment areas of major reservoirs that supply water to the metropolis have not commensurately benefited.
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