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Ongoing busy typhoon season in the northwest Pacific/South China Sea could rub-off on the Bay of Bengal to the west as early as by next week, according to a model forecast.
A low-pressure area is seen developing over the Andaman Sea by Monday next, says the European Centre for Medium Term Weather Forecasts.
PACIFIC TYPHOON
It will pick up some strength and move towards Andhra Pradesh as per its early assessment. Whether the system can precipitate the onset of northeast monsoon is something that needs to be watched out for.
Conventionally speaking, the suggested timeline is too early to declare the winter monsoon, since it jumpstarts the known onset window of October 15 to 20.
The low-pressure area would be generated in the wake of Typhoon Phanfone in the northwest Pacific that is suspected to grow into a destructive storm of Category-4 strength on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.
FOLLOW-UP STORM
Phanfone is currently racing away from mid-ocean towards just the south of Japan, according to the London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group, but may likely spare the archipelago of a direct impact.
But the European Centre begs to differ and says that Phanfone would head straight into Japan.
As Phanfone fades away to the south of Japan, another storm is seen developing in the northwest Pacific, extending a trough of lower pressure area into the South China Sea.
This would see the low-pressure area in the Bay in good stead, allowing it to pick up some strength and guide itself towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, riding on an easterly to northeasterly flows in the Bay.
SHOWERS IN SOUTH
Meanwhile, residual southwest monsoon showers continued to lash extreme south peninsula.
Kalpana satellite imagery shows thunder clouds standing tall over east and south Bay of Bengal, Comorin area, and central and south Arabian Sea.
An upper air cyclonic circulation that is indirectly causing the thundershowers persists over southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea.
The US Climate Prediction Centre suggests that the rains would now be driven by a circulation forming off Sri Lanka.
It assesses that coastal Karnataka, Kerala and adjoining south Tamil Nadu may continue to witness thundershowers until October 13.
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