Bay ‘low' pushed back by 2 days as whirl lingers

Afternoon satellite imagery on Sunday showed the presence of convective (thunderstorm-laden) clouds over parts of Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, east-central and south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and southeast Arabian Sea.

This provided the backdrop to an India Meteorological Department (IMD) weather update that pushed back by a day or two the formation of an anticipated low-pressure in the Bay of Bengal.

CAUSATIVE WHIRL

What is thought to be the causative upper air cyclonic circulation persisted over central parts of the Bay on Sunday. A counterpart circulation hung over central Bihar.

A forecast outlook from the Thailand Meteorological Department spoke about the probability the ‘low' intensifying to some extent and moving west to cross the Tamil Nadu coast during the weekend.

The system would re-emerge in southeast Arabian Sea just off the Kerala coast and strengthen once again, the Thai outlook valid until May 9 seemed to suggest.

This contradicts a group of other models that see the system being guided east-northeast towards Myanmar under the combined effect of westerly winds and peaking sea-surface temperatures.

WESTERLY SYSTEM

Meanwhile on Sunday, a prevailing western disturbance loomed large over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining Himachal Pradesh even while seeking exit towards the east.

The system had induced the formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over Punjab and adjoining central Pakistan, which trailed the parent and was traced to over Uttar Pradesh.

A southward-bound trough broke out from this system and ran down to south Tamil Nadu across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka.

This provided for an elongated swathe of ‘charged-up' air and potentially turbulent conditions with moisture-laden easterlies and northeasterlies blowing in.

WEATHER WARNING

A weather warning issued by the IMD said that isolated thunder squalls may occur over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa and Vidarbha until Tuesday.

An extended outlook valid until Friday said that scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and adjoining east India.

But mainly dry weather would prevail over northwest and adjoining west and central India.

This is despite forecast of arrival of a fresh western disturbance over western Himalayan region and adjoining plains from Thursday onwards.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

A short-term outlook valid until Wednesday said that

widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, scattered over Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep and isolated over rest south peninsula India.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and isolated over south peninsular India.

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