A prevailing western disturbance straddling north Pakistan, adjoining Jammu Kashmir backed up by mutually perpendicular upper air trough formations have lit up the skies over northwest east,east-centralsouthern peninsular India. An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Monday morning said that the western disturbance would continue to affect the western Himalayan region for a couple of days.

The cooler northwesterly flows would be made to rise over the heated up plains of northwest, east India thanks to intense convective activity, which could throw up varyingly violent weather in these regions. This apart they are expected to charge up the atmosphere downstream as two potential ‘minefields’ lie in wait - an upper air trough running down from east Uttar Pradesh to north Orissa coast topped up by an embedded cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesha,counterpart from Vidarbha to southeast Tamil Nadu.

The air is already in churn within these formations what with some moisture form adjoining Bay of Bengal finding its way in providing sufficient fuel for convection. An IMD weather warning valid for the next couple of days has said that isolated thunder squalls with wind speed exceeding 60 km/hr would affect east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, north Orissa, the Northeastern States.

Isolated dust storms or thunderstorms would occur over plains of northwest India as well. Meanwhile, towards the southeast, the active easterly wave in the Bay of Bengal has thrown up a low-pressure area over south Andaman Sea. Isolated heavy rain has been forecast over Andaman Nicobar Islands until Wednesday morning. An IMD update on Monday morning said that isolated rain or snow, occurred over Himachal Pradesh until the previous (Sunday) evening. Widespread rainfall occurred over Andaman Nicobar Islands while it was isolated over Assam, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Sikkim, south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu.

Maximum temperatures rose by 1 to 2 degree Celsius over isolated pockets of northwest central northeast India. They fell by 2 to 5 degree Celsius over parts of West Bengal, Sikkim, changed little elsewhere. They were above normal by 2 to 5 degree Celsius over parts of northwest adjoining central India below normal by 2 to 4 degree Celsius over parts of West Bengal, Sikkim Assam.

The highest maximum temperature of 41.1 degree Celsius on Sunday was recorded at Barmer in Rajasthan. Maximum minimum temperatures may look slightly up over the plains of northwest India by 2 to 3 degree Celsius over west central India over the next couple of days. Satellite pictures early on Monday morning showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of Jammu Kashmir, southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea.

A short-term forecast said that fairly widespread rain or snow would occur over Jammu Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh scattered over Uttarakhand until Wednesday. However it may become fairly widespread on tomorrow (Tuesday). Widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman Nicobar Islands. Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States; scattered over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Kerala, Tamil Nadu; isolated over east Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa the rest of south peninsular India.

Extended forecast valid until Friday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman Nicobar Islands, the Northeastern States with isolated heavy falls over Andaman Nicobar Islands.

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