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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined the outlook mounted by global peer models for a feeble western disturbance affecting the hills of the northwest by the weekend.
But this may not be sufficient to arrest the expected fall in maximum and minimum temperatures by 2 to 3 degree Celsius over the plains of northwest and adjoining central and east India.
The fall in mercury would come about as the prevailing “active” westerly system moves away to the east leaving the space clear for cooler north-westerlies to fill.
As has been forecast, the westerly system is seen dipping into lower latitudes over east India and dropping anchor for sometime.
During this phase, it would likely be accosted by a weather system springing up from the Bay of Bengal.
Getting drawn to each other by the pull force, the combined system would interact and drop rains over peninsular south and along the east coast from around Sunday.
The fresh but weak western disturbance may also hit the hills of the northwest during this time, triggering isolated precipitation over the western Himalayan region.
EASTERLY RAINS
An IMD outlook said that scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and the Northeastern States.
This system would continue to affect western Himalayan region and the Indo-Gangetic plains on Wednesday and Thursday and the Northeastern states thereafter. A weather warning issued by the IMD said that heavy rain or snowfall is likely at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday.
The core of the active westerly has moved into the east and is expected to trigger isolated thunder squalls and hailstorms over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar on Wednesday and Thursday.
During the last 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, widespread rain or snow was reported from Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Scattered rain or thundershowers occurred over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and isolated over east Uttar Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh.
Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir.
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