Wheat can be used as feedgrain in northern and central parts of the country compared with the southern region. But feed manufacturers are expected to only source a part of their feed demand from wheat.

Currently, the landed cost of wheat in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka is Rs 1,350-1,400 a quintal. “It is Rs 40-50 higher than the price of maize at the gate of our units,” he said.

“Poultry farmers will not totally shift to wheat since the balance will again swing. The smartness is in using both equally to ensure both grains prices rule on par,” said Mr K.S. Ponnusamy, a feed producer in Namakkal.

Broiler chicken feed typically contains 60 per cent corn. It is lower, at 40 per cent in feed for layer (egg-producing) birds and 10-12 per cent for cattle.

Earlier when maize prices became unviable, the producers substituted it with jowar that came from Maharashtra.

“At one point of time, we used to get corn at Rs 500-600 a quintal during peak arrivals and Rs 700-800 in the offseason.. When it was unviable, we used jowar. But now jowar is used by grain-based distilleries. Even within Maharashtra, jowar is not available for consumption,” said Mr Ponnusamy.

He said the Centre should stop export of maize or allow imports under tariff rate quota (TRQ) as was allowed earlier. The TRQ imports were stopped after maize production surged in the country.

This year (July-June), maize production is estimated at a record 21 million tonnes against 16.6 million tonnes a year ago.

“Exports of maize are not happening as is being said by some people. In fact, we have had some consignments rejected by Vietnam on grounds of higher moisture,” said Mr A. Rajkumar of Chennai-based Alagendran group of companies.

The problem is similar to the one faced four years ago when Indonesia rejected Indian consignments that had higher moisture.

About 2.5 million tonnes of maize is estimated to have been exported this year.

“This time, maize that arrived in the market had higher moisture. Farmers have to spend more to dry and reduce moisture. Therefore, they brought the maize direct to market after harvest,” Mr Rajkumar said.

Even multi-national companies that are exporting maize from the country have been hit by rejections of maize consignments.

“The fact is that it is just domestic demand, especially from the poultry sector, that is keeping maize prices high,” said Mr Rajkumar.

Currently, farmers do not hold any maize stock. “Traders are holding the stock and therefore, prices may not drop in the next couple of months,” said Mr Rajkumar.

But wheat prices could gain, according to flour millers. “Wheat prices could begin rising after a fortnight,” said Mr Pramod Kumar of Sunil Agro Foods in Karnataka.

“Maize prices could drop from September onwards when kharif arrivals begin,” said Mr Rajkumar.

Kharif sowing of maize will depend on the weather. “If monsoon turns out to be good, cotton could see higher acreage and pulses the least. We expect some pulses growers shifting to cotton, some to groundnut and some to maize,” Mr Rajkumar said.

Maize enjoys the reputation of a crop whose inputs costs are low. It needs minimum maintenance, less water and has lower labour requirement. “In fact, farm machinery can help sow or harvest corn,” said Mr Rajkumar.

The lower production cost could see more farmers shifting to maize in large numbers in the near future, say industry players.

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