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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised an incoming western disturbance on Tuesday to ‘active’ status with attendant implications for weather for at least two-thirds of the country’s landmass for another week.
Both the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction are in agreement with this outlook.
While the northwest region is expected to receive the normal weather associated with the weather system, forecasts indicated its possible accentuation over east India that will trigger of rains, squall and thundershowers for east and northeast India, apart from the east coast and immediate interior and southern peninsula.
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that isolated thunder squalls or hailstorms may occur over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh on Sunday and Monday.
Similar weather would be on view over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, north Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh and Vidarbha on Sunday.
An extended outlook valid until Thursday (February 24) said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Tamil Nadu and Kerala and scattered over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka.
The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea/equatorial Indian Ocean also would have their influence on the emerging weather by spinning up helpful circulations and trigger isolated heavy rains over south interior Karnataka, adjoining Rayalaseema and parts of northeast Kerala during the week ahead.
Meanwhile, an intervening western disturbance has already checked into the hills of the northwest, which would affect western Himalayan region and adjoining plains on Sunday and Monday.
Fairly widespread rain or snowfall has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir and scattered over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over plains of northwest India.
Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Gangetic West Bengal, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh on Sunday.
Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Kerala on Sunday and Monday and increase thereafter.
A weather update for the last 24 hours ending Saturday morning said that isolated rain or snowfall occurred over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Isolated rain or thundershowers were reported from Punjab, west Rajasthan, Arunachal Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema.
Minimum temperatures are currently near normal over the country except isolated pockets of Punjab, Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Kutch, Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu where they are above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius.
In the plains of the country, the lowest minimum temperature during the last 24 hours of 6.4 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh.
Satellite image on Saturday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of north Jammu and Kashmir.
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