Karnataka is set to witness variations in coconut prices over the next couple of months. According to a price-forecast analysis for coconut crop undertaken by the Market Intelligence Centre of University of Agricultural Sciences-Bangalore, the coconut prices which are already ruling high in the State, are set to increase further till the end of this month, due to the lack of fresh arrivals as against the growing demand.

However, they are expected to show a declining trend from March due to the arrival of fresh crops, before picking up again in May.

Prof. C. P. Gracy, Principal Investigator of the UAS-B's Market Intelligence Centre, told The Hindu that the Centre had undertaken an analysis of coconut prices in the Tumkur market — the State's prominent coconut market, besides conducting an econometric analysis of the last 10 year's data on coconut prices. Such an exercise had been undertaken to help farmers to decide on whether to sell the nuts immediately upon harvest, or to store them in anticipation of good prices.

Wholesale prices

The analysis has shown that the coconut wholesale prices, which are presently ruling at 6,500 to 8,700 for 1,000 nuts, may increase to 7,500-9,000 (for medium to big sized ones) in Tumkur market by the end of this month or early March. This is due to the increase in demand for coconuts for various purposes, including festivities and ceremonies, at a time when there is shortage as the fresh crop is yet to arrive in Tumkur market, she explained. She pointed out that a similar analysis by Kerala had indicated that wholesale prices of this crop was set to increase in the State also, before showing a declining trend from March onwards.

In the wake of fluctuating prices, the Market Intelligence Centre has advised the farmers to sell the crop upon harvesting as storage may not fetch good prices. But it has made it clear to farmers to ensure that the harvesting time matches the festival occasions to ensure that they get a better deal.

India is the largest consumer of coconut products in the world and it imports coconut products from other countries such as Sri Lanka, Seychelles and Malaysia to make up for the shortage.

Karnataka stands third in the country in terms of coconut production after Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The State produces 2,176 million coconuts a year accounting for 13.83 per cent of the country's production. Major coconut growing districts in Karnataka are Tumkur, Hassan, Dakshina Kannada, Chikmagalur and Chitradurga, which together account for more than 85 per cent of coconut-growing area in the State. Tumkur district has the largest area under coconut followed by Hassan.

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