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Monsoon is now running in ‘surplus' mode, having precipitated two per cent more than the normal for the season until now.
Peninsular and central India has notched up nine per cent surplus while the northwest has run up five per cent in what has been a roller-coaster ride thus far.
EAST IN DEFICIT
East and northeast is slowly falling back into deficit, assessed latest at 16 per cent. The rains have been biased to the west, central and northwest, which is normally a pattern identified with La Nina conditions in the Pacific.
West Rajasthan (+44 per cent) and east Rajasthan (+32 per cent) are leading the surplus charts in the northwest, with no other subdivision in the region reaching anywhere near.
The rest (which are to the east) have in fact witnessed less than normal rainfall with Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi even perpetuating a deficit (-27 per cent as on date).
Elsewhere to the east of the country, this has largely been the pattern. But this is exactly where rains are now forecast to propagate for the next two weeks.
RAINS IN SIGHT
They indicate the enhanced possibility for rains to pick over the eastern half of India even as scattered to moderate showers would linger over central and adjoining northwest India.
The Bay of Bengal may have already fired a warning shot, by propping up a full-blown low-pressure area to the northwest of the basin on Monday.
This is even as a predecessor ‘low' stays anchored over Gujarat and neighbourhood, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
To the northwest, a western disturbance too has gamely hung on, promising to precipitate interactive rain in league with monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal.
To complete the picture, the offshore trough lay extended north to south along the coast from Gujarat to Kerala.
WEATHER WARNING
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would break out over Gujarat, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast over Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday.
An extended outlook valid until Saturday said that fairly widespread rainfall activity would continue over east and adjoining central India as well as along the west coast.
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