Monsoon may come back to life during next 7 days

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has said in its forecast outlook that the Indian monsoon would launch itself on a second spell during the next seven days after a successful run in June.

This would come about as a wet phase of the weather-setting Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave gets generated in the western Indian Ocean.

DRY PHASE

The periodic MJO wave, one of whose alternating dry phases is on view as of now, transits from west to the east over Indian Ocean with profound influence over ground-level weather especially during monsoon onsets and fresh intra-seasonal spells.

The BoM review said that over the past week or two, the MJO wave has remained mostly weak in the western Pacific, although some notable events have eventuated. In the wake of the current MJO, the northwest Pacific has observed the formation of three tropical cyclones (Sarika, Haima and Meari) within the past fortnight. Concurrent to that, the Indian monsoon underwent a ‘break’ period, especially in central and southern India, where thunderstorm activity was well below normal.

Over the next week, climate models surveyed suggest that an MJO event is likely to develop in the western Indian Ocean.

FRESH SPELL

“With this development, we would likely see a reinvigoration of the Indian monsoon and a decrease in tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines Sea,” the BoM said.

Meanwhile, central and adjoining peninsular India continued to witness largely uneventful days even as widespread to fairly widespread rains lashed parts of the west coast and northwest and northeast India, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Tuesday.

Satellite imagery showed convective clouds rising over parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, north and southeast Bay of Bengal and north Andaman Sea.

Productive interaction between monsoon easterlies rushing along the land-based trough across northwest to southeast India and opposing winds from a western disturbance brought more rains over the region.

WEATHER WARNING

A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya.

Satellite cloud imagery showed the presence of rain-bearing clouds over parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, north and southeast Bay of Bengal and north Andaman Sea.

The northern limit of monsoon had not progressed overnight from the Porbandar, Ahmedabad, Udaipur, Ajmer, Pilani and Ganganagar alignment.

The IMD assessed conditions as favourable for further advance of monsoon over some more parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat during next three days.

MORE RAINS

A short-term outlook until Friday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has been forecast over the Western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana, east Rajasthan, the west coast, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Sikkim.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers may break out over Vidarbha and Orissa on Wednesday and decrease thereafter.

An extended outlook until Saturday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers being unleashed over northwest, east and northeast India and the west coast.

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