The southwest monsoon is all set for a revival after being in ‘break’ conditions as an initial productive session ran to a close by June end.

A short-term forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) valid until Thursday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over western Himalayan region, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Lakshadweep, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and along the west coast.

Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over remaining parts of the country outside Rajasthan and Gujarat. However, rainfall activity would increase over central and adjoining west and peninsular India from Friday.

An extended forecast valid until Saturday spoke about the possibility of further increase in rainfall activity over central and northwest India.

But in a weather warning for the next two days, the IMD said that there are two remnant rain-driving circulations from the heavy session still hanging over the region over northwest Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand and adjoining Bihar respectively.

These are potent enough to prolong the west session in the region with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Jharkhand, Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim during the next two days.

Isolated heavy rainfall would also occur over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and the Northeastern States during this period as the revival of monsoon reverberates along the southwest coast as also in the northeast.

Meanwhile, an IMD update on Monday morning said that the all-important land-based monsoon trough across northwest-to-southeast India has reverted back to its normal position.

The eastern end of this seasonal trough that had withdrawn to lie along the Himalayan foothills to signal the ‘break’ phase, has now returned to its appointed slot in the Bay of Bengal.

The IMD update said that the trough passes through Amritsar, Roorkee, Bareilly, Jonpur and Dhanbad before dipping southeastwards into the east-central Bay.

This sets the stage for the revival of rain activity, with Kalpana-1 satellite pictures early in the morning picking the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, coastal Karnataka, the Northeastern States, Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and east-central and southeast Arabian Sea.

A conventional offshore trough has fallen into place along the west coast from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. Towards the northwest border, a feeble western disturbance is still in the reckoning over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir.

This is just as well, since monsoon easterlies would need a system to interact with and bring needed rains into the region including West Rajasthan and north Gujarat where rains have been either deficient or scanty until now.

Meanwhile during the day yesterday (Sunday), fairly widespread rainfall was reported from Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, north interior Karnataka and the Northeastern States.

It was scattered over the west coast, Jammu and Kashmir and Bihar and isolated over remaining parts of the country outside Uttar Pradesh and west Rajasthan where the weather was mainly dry.

comment COMMENT NOW