Monsoon to be active for North into August

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US is of the view that moderate to active monsoon conditions would continue over the North-West into the first week of August.

These will be underwritten by helpful circulations forming in the Bay of Bengal. On Friday, India Met Department has identified an upper level circulation doing the rounds over north Bay of Bengal.

A couple of international models suggested this has settled down to being a weak low-pressure area, which will now spearhead the monsoon from East into North-West.

It is expected to drop moderate to heavy rainfall over parts of east and north India, especially Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh until July 30.

Parts of Gujarat and the West Coast at large are also expected to gain. Entire central parts, peninsular India and the South may remain largely dry.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction is of the view that the Bay may not be finished just yet. A follow-up ‘low’ is there for the asking, and might show up over the Odisha coast by July 31.

The new ‘low’ is predicted would sustain the rainfall over North India at least until August 6; here again, central and peninsular north and south may have to sit out.

The Met Department has forecast increase in rainfall activity over east and adjoining central India and the western Himalayan region from July 28. It will be subdued over south interior peninsula.

The West Coast would continue to witness varyingly moderate to heavy rain; the real gains this time round are forecast to accrue for south-west Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan.

Meanwhile, rainfall deficit for the country as a whole has contracted rapidly to 25 per cent .

The Met said on Friday that the erstwhile monsoon depression had weakened into ‘low’ over south-west Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan and had merged into the larger monsoon trough.

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