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Global models suggested that northeast monsoon will get sufficient boost from upper atmosphere next week onwards.
This would likely result in enhancement of rain activity over the Indian Ocean, of which Bay of Bengal is a part, from October 24 (Wednesday).
A positive (wet) phase of the periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is forecast to pass over the Indian Ocean during this period. An MJO wave passes from west to east, and has a bearing on weather at ground level depending on whether it is a positive (wet) or a negative (dry) phase.
Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services said that above-average rainfall is in this manner forecast to shift to west Indian Ocean next week.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the South-West monsoon would exit the country in the next two days. Simultaneously, North-East monsoon rains are likely to commence over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
Satellite images on Wednesday revealed convective (rain-bearing) clouds standing tall over parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South Andaman Sea and South Bay of Bengal.
Extended forecast valid for the next seven days said that rain or thundershowers may break out at many places over extreme south peninsular India.
HEAVY FALLS
Heavy falls have been indicated at one or two places over coastal Tamil Nadu. This phase coincides with the expected arrival of the MJO wave into Indian Ocean.
Seasonal forecast by the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) pointed towards a ‘reasonably good’ northeast monsoon for peninsular India.
RIGC is an affiliate of Jamstec (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology). Normal to slightly above normal rain has been indicated for peninsular India during both November and December.
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