North-West India will witness a sustained showery regime into the first week of September as a battery of western disturbances from across the border interacts with an active monsoon system to its south.

The US Climate Prediction Centre sees heavy rain for Mumbai-south and east Gujarat, adjoining west Madhya Pradesh, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana the first week of September. The western disturbances will interact with the rain-bearing system in these areas to bring showers into parts of North-West during this period. Only Jammu and Kashmir is seen sitting out.

This would keep at bay the seasonal anti-cyclone that normally announces its advent over the North-West to ring in the withdrawal of the monsoon starting from here from September 1.

This has invited the focus of monsoon watchers here for signs of an extended monsoon this year in line with a pattern that has been evident during the past few years.

Buzz in bay

The withdrawal of monsoon had been delayed during these years, with rains continuing to hold in many parts of the north and central parts well into mid-September.

Meanwhile, the current week, which is the last of August, would see a low-pressure area brewing fresh in the west-central Bay of Bengal drive heavy rain into adjoining peninsular India and into Mumbai-Gujarat.

Entire Andhra Pradesh, parts of north Tamil Nadu, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan-Goa, coastal Karnataka and adjoining north Kerala may receive moderate to heavy rain during this phase.

On Tuesday, an India Met Department update said that the monsoon was vigorous over north interior Karnataka ad active over coastal Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. Madhya Pradesh to the north and parts of interior peninsula to the south are forecast to receive indifferent rain, according to this forecast.

Rain outlook

Rain outlook for the next three days suggested possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall variously over Konkan-Goa, coastal Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Telangana, and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

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