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It is becoming increasingly clear that the monsoon, still running a three per cent surplus, may not start withdrawing until mid-week next week. By India Meteorological Department's (IMD) own projections, the rainfall activity is expected to decrease over north-west India from next week.
RAINS IN EAST
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would continue over east and adjoining central India as well as over the North-eastern States.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services said in its latest outlook for the week beginning on Wednesday that an enhanced monsoon flow is expected to enhance rainfall in northern India, the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia.
This is being attributed to the sustained above average sea surface temperatures over the western equatorial Indian Ocean that helps convection (process of cloud building).
FLOWS TO BAY
Its outlook for the following week (September 21 to 27) spoke about the possibility of the enhanced monsoon flows being confined to the Bay of Bengal and parts of South-East Asia. Model guidance and above average sea surface temperatures also favour enhanced convection in the western Indian Ocean. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction saw almost the entire east coast erupting with activity from September 22 to 30. The Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal coasts are likely to be the focal areas of enhanced weather activity.
WEATHER WARNING
Meanwhile, the IMD said that a fresh spell of rain would occur over north-west India during next three days as monsoon easterlies and western disturbance interact. Monsoon would remain active over east and adjoining central India during this period.
The low-pressure system over northwest Bay of Bengal and coastal areas of West Bengal and Orissa persisted on Wednesday. The offshore trough ran down Gujarat coast to Lakshadweep.
A weather warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
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