Southeast Arabian Sea is now hosting a full-blown monsoon depression (05A), which India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects to become a deep depression by Monday.

Vigorous monsoon

The system has sustained a vigorous northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Lakshadweep.

Meanwhile, early indications are that the vigorous monsoon would continue into the first week of December, with the Bay of Bengal being kept on the boil after the current session gets over with.

A deep depression is only a spin away from being classified a tropical cyclone, but this would be the most 05A could possibly intensify, according to the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC).

This is because the system would run into increasing vertical wind shear (sudden shifts in wind speeds with height, which kills storm heads) as it ventures further north and increasingly under the influence of the western disturbance perched over north Pakistan.

The sea-surface temperatures also are less warm to further north of the Arabian Sea; this could too work against the intensification.

Heavy rains

But this would not prevent heavy to very heavy rainfall from lashing at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and Lakshadweep for two more days, an IMD forecast said.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during this period.

System coordinates

On Saturday, the causative depression lay over the Comorin area and neighbourhood moved west-northwestwards over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadweep about 150 km west-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram; 300 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadweep); 500 km west-northwest of Colombo; and 500 km north-northeast of Male.

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep area and intensify into a deep depression.

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