Rains for east, central India ahead of Bay ‘low'

Scattered rain or thundershowers are expected to break out over central and east India and parts of peninsular India on Tuesday and scale up thereafter, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Monday.

Isolated heavy rain has also been warned of over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Wednesday.

A short-term forecast valid until Thursday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers along the west coast and over Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Northeastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim.

These could be the precursor to the next monsoon pulse being pitch-forked by a low-pressure area in the making in the North Bay of Bengal.

The IMD expects that the ‘low,' which could drive seasonal rains into north peninsular and adjoining central India, to materialise in a day or two.

Global models are of the view that it would intensify into a depression and retain the status for a while helping drag the monsoon and spread it out spatially across the peninsula.

Some of them continue to retain a watch for the system to track west-northwest initially before taking a more westerly direction, heading towards Mumbai/Gujarat.

Interaction with intervening western disturbances is expected to trigger a productive session over east and east-central India as well.

Given this, the monsoon is expected to run up to most of the landmass, except a small region of Rajasthan, by the end of this spell.

The odd forecast shows a north-northeast track to east and northeast India, which might leave the whole of north peninsular and adjoining central India in the lurch.

But the emerging consensus is that the system would move very slowly either way, ensuring sustained coverage of rains under its footprint.

Meanwhile, the remnant of tropical storm 01A hung on gamely, though winding down a round in intensity, as well-marked low pressure area over Saurashtra and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea.

The IMD has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Saurashtra and Kutch on Tuesday.

Isolated thunder squalls may stalk Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh given that an upper air cyclonic circulation over east Rajasthan, adjoining Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh has persisted from overnight.

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